IvanLabrie
Long

USOIL: Daily analysis - Key levels and uptrend 'slope'

TVC:USOIL   WTI CRUDE OIL
5 months ago
Traders, we have a bullish setup in oil             , as you all know and judging by RgMov, it's unlikely for it to give dips to join the uptrend, or least, not when everyone's begging for one as they unwind shorts in loss.
Pay attention to the two red dashed lines on chart. These two are speed lines, and determine the 'slope' one can expect from the uptrend, which if breached, presages a steeper pullback or a sideways correction, causing a slower progress in the trend.

Simply put, if price approaches the diagonal line nearby, it has to rebound instantly. If this 'faster' trend holds, we can expect a brutal rally, if not, price will form a consolidation which can take many shapes, either a sideways pattern for a few days, or longer, or a steeper pullback to support.
If the correction takes the form of a sideways pattern, we'll go long again on the breakout from the mode, using 'Time at mode'. If we get a pullback, we'll go long when we hit a good support level , or if we get other confirmation signals from our tools. The idea is to be prepared to follow this trend, and trade around the main long term position as much as possible, speculating on shorter term longs when suitable.

Good luck,

Ivan Labrie.
5 months ago
Comment: The news this week can give us a 'hunch' of timing and potential max downside we could see, with oil hitting 48, worst case scenario, with the faster uptrend slope holding until the EIA report on Wednesday. Best case scenario, price progresses higher straight up, or it goes sideways and hits the speed line by the 27th, where it breaks out. This would form a 'Time at mode' signal in the daily chart. It's just a guess, simply react to these events as they unfold.
5 months ago
Comment: I added to my long on the break of Friday's low.
5 months ago
Comment: Buying the new low was perfect.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-10/russians-and-saudis-pledge-joint-effort-to-limit-oil-production
5 months ago
Comment: Holding this position for the long term.
Additionally I'm taking swing trades without closing it.

EIA data on Wednesday will probably instigate a massive surge.
5 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
5 months ago
Trade closed manually: Closed longs and flipped short. I'll see if we get a meaningful correction, or the trend simply turns down. (I think it's a pullback)
5 months ago
Comment: Well, as soon as I entered on the breakdown I got out shortly after.
Seems like it's going sideways from here. Let's watch it to either short, or reenter longs.
5 months ago
Trade active: I'm long again, stop is under yesterday's close.
5 months ago
Trade active: We approached the speed line, broke above the mode, we have 4h confirmation, daily will soon fire an uptrend signal so I'm back in the long here. Stop is 40 pips down.
5 months ago
Comment: Blast off! Stop now at entry price of 51.71.
5 months ago
Comment: There's a chance that oil breaks down to the following target.
If we get more confirmation we could go short towards it, and lower prices but it's not ideal.
I'd rather go long at the bottom when safe again.

snapshot


If you want you can risk half, max 1%, and short with a stop above the previous day's high.
5 months ago
Comment: We have a breakdown today, after API data came out. The short trade is tricky, with very volatile intraday conditions, I'm flat currently.

I'll be watching it closely.
4 months ago
Comment: I'm long as per my recent posts.
summer6
5 months ago
Ivan, nice analysis :)

On Friday, oil reached a resistance and got rejected. There was a tweezers' top on the daily candle chart. Hurricane Matthew may impact on the oil transportation.

snapshot
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO summer6
5 months ago
Yes, in any event, the hurricane is a bullish factor.
Reply
kate25 PRO IvanLabrie
5 months ago
Hey Ivan nice analysis as usual. Ill put my chart up with the daily pivots.
snapshot

Reply
IvanLabrie PRO kate25
5 months ago
Hi Kate, thanks!

I haven't looked at the pivots or ichimoku data in ages, but they both are quite good if you know how to use them.

And the weekly and monthly?

What's your entry and outlook here?
Reply
kate25 PRO IvanLabrie
5 months ago
I'm tinkering with the pivots - I think maybe oil could be considered to be in the last leg of a three move pattern - the last is either truncated and we are heading up or just starting its down leg which will be a continuation of the move down
snapshot
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO kate25
5 months ago
That's an unusual read. The top target aligns more or less with my first target.
Reply
kate25 PRO IvanLabrie
5 months ago
There really is no such thing as a head and shoulders bottom - it is a set of 3 to 5 moves usually. Here is my 8hr pivots with the daily - they are going to start riding below the daily - or at least open below
snapshot
- I was just tinkering with the pivots - you always have great analysis
+1 Reply
summer6 kate25
5 months ago
hi Kate, long time no talk. nice charts ^_^
Reply
kate25 PRO summer6
5 months ago
As yours I never really studied Ickimoku indicator before
Reply
summer6 IvanLabrie
5 months ago
the weather makes the situation more complicated.
Reply
summer6 summer6
5 months ago
Plus, "OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers plan an informal meeting in Istanbul Oct. 8-13 to discuss how to implement a production deal OPEC members reached in Algiers last month"
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO summer6
5 months ago
Yes, this should cement the way for more upside.
+1 Reply
summer6
5 months ago
snapshot


Oil still hasn't broken the triangle yet.
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO summer6
5 months ago
It'd be nice to have a LOW above that level you point out, but I got a bullish signal way before that.
If I waited for that to break I wouldn't have my floating 6% profit in it, plus 6% that I banked.
+1 Reply
coolingla PRO
5 months ago
It's a no brainer long here. Any short will crushed.
Reply
coolingla PRO coolingla
5 months ago
Bad EIA Report but OIL Barely Budged
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO coolingla
5 months ago
I don't know, I'm in NGAS longs meanwhile.
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out