Traders, we have a bullish setup in oil, as you all know and judging by RgMov, it's unlikely for it to give dips to join the uptrend, or least, not when everyone's begging for one as they unwind shorts in loss. Pay attention to the two red dashed lines on chart. These two are speed lines, and determine the 'slope' one can expect from the uptrend, which if breached, presages a steeper pullback or a sideways correction, causing a slower progress in the trend.
Simply put, if price approaches the diagonal line nearby, it has to rebound instantly. If this 'faster' trend holds, we can expect a brutal rally, if not, price will form a consolidation which can take many shapes, either a sideways pattern for a few days, or longer, or a steeper pullback to support. If the correction takes the form of a sideways pattern, we'll go long again on the breakout from the mode, using 'Time at mode'. If we get a pullback, we'll go long when we hit a good support level, or if we get other confirmation signals from our tools. The idea is to be prepared to follow this trend, and trade around the main long term position as much as possible, speculating on shorter term longs when suitable.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
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The news this week can give us a 'hunch' of timing and potential max downside we could see, with oil hitting 48, worst case scenario, with the faster uptrend slope holding until the EIA report on Wednesday. Best case scenario, price progresses higher straight up, or it goes sideways and hits the speed line by the 27th, where it breaks out. This would form a 'Time at mode' signal in the daily chart. It's just a guess, simply react to these events as they unfold.
Closed longs and flipped short. I'll see if we get a meaningful correction, or the trend simply turns down. (I think it's a pullback)
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Well, as soon as I entered on the breakdown I got out shortly after. Seems like it's going sideways from here. Let's watch it to either short, or reenter longs.
Trade active
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I'm long again, stop is under yesterday's close.
Trade active
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We approached the speed line, broke above the mode, we have 4h confirmation, daily will soon fire an uptrend signal so I'm back in the long here. Stop is 40 pips down.
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Blast off! Stop now at entry price of 51.71.
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There's a chance that oil breaks down to the following target. If we get more confirmation we could go short towards it, and lower prices but it's not ideal. I'd rather go long at the bottom when safe again.
If you want you can risk half, max 1%, and short with a stop above the previous day's high.
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We have a breakdown today, after API data came out. The short trade is tricky, with very volatile intraday conditions, I'm flat currently.
It'd be nice to have a LOW above that level you point out, but I got a bullish signal way before that.
If I waited for that to break I wouldn't have my floating 6% profit in it, plus 6% that I banked.
summer6
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Ivan, nice analysis :)
On Friday, oil reached a resistance and got rejected. There was a tweezers' top on the daily candle chart. Hurricane Matthew may impact on the oil transportation.
Yes, in any event, the hurricane is a bullish factor.
kate25
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Hey Ivan nice analysis as usual. Ill put my chart up with the daily pivots.
IvanLabrie
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Hi Kate, thanks!
I haven't looked at the pivots or ichimoku data in ages, but they both are quite good if you know how to use them.
And the weekly and monthly?
What's your entry and outlook here?
kate25
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I'm tinkering with the pivots - I think maybe oil could be considered to be in the last leg of a three move pattern - the last is either truncated and we are heading up or just starting its down leg which will be a continuation of the move down