Hi let me explain to you why I started going long on Crude OIL.
We had a very dumpy day on Oil, which is when I usually love to buy, and now price is sitting on the daily 50 moving average. I wanted to short it last weeks, but it didn't go high enough for me.
We have plenty of support under us. Some BS FUD news (as usual) as well as a correction being needed after several very bullish weeks drove the price down.
First I want to look at 4 of the worse dumps Oil has ever had (I believe these are the 4 worse), then I will list the supports that are under our feet.
1/ The second half of 2008
What we can take from these charts is: - The daily Guppy's were not lost without being tested several times. - They were PLENTY of bounces on the way down. - I don't know what happened exactly but the weekly moving averages provided a mega bounce - Once the weekly moving average's were lost... Ouch. - The monthly 200 moving average provided imense support. - Bounced 5% on 200DMA - Oil tested the moving averages as resistance, providing a nice short entry (as a hedge for example)
2/ May - August 2011
- Big fall, big bounce - Same support as last time worked out just the same. - Did not bounce until a support was reached.
3/ May-June 2012
- Same stuff as usual - One distinctions: the weekly guppy's were not going up but flat after the price run around it for months. They did not support that last time.
4/ June 2014 (notice a pattern?) to January 2015
Let's look at what we got this time: + The bad news is Putin said 60$ was a decent price for Oil right? Where the weekly MA's at.
Doesn't even have to be risky, for me, if the big supports at 66$ don't hold, I will reduce my position size BUT leave enough for me to make a profit if we bounce right after I exit, and on the way down I will grow my position, just keep adding little by little. The bigger the fall, the bigger the bounce. Easy.
I think I like Oil futures and want to trade them all the time. Reasons are 100 billion dollar daily volume, and INSANE volatility. <3 Always something to do :)
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Going big in the 65-66.5 area.
If that does not hold next support area is too far, I'll reduce my sizing and take a loss and go long next support area. It will probably bounce in between just to piss me off...
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Strong bullish divergence. Hope this is it I didn't analyse this chart to the limit don't feel 100% comfortable XD
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Come on go to the moon. I mean Oil is still super bullish a little pullback is no big deal.
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When will it STOP???
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Doubled my position size on 66.5
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Last time 4HR RSI got that low was back in 2011. Looking pretty similar. I won't be so greedy if it goes up, I will scale out progressively. Maybe we go up 0.5 fib quick, who knows. Still prefer to reduce my position lock in some profit on the way up. I don't gamble.
"an upcoming regulation that analysts have called “the biggest change in oil market history” and the “the most disruptive change in the refining industry” is lurking just around the corner"
Yeye sure it's a revolution I don't hear that every day.
Don't be surprised we soon hear some super bullish news "this is a revolution" "The supply is short" bla bla bla, and all the bottom shorters will get rekt and this already super bullish for months commodity will go skyrocket.
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Had an order on 65.8 but didn't get filled because of spread... barely missed... Guess I have to split my orders even more... The 1 chart I didn't spend time looking at closely goes wrong. Well now I closed at a loss the little position I opened a bit too high, and 2/3 left. Seriously I want to get filled... Maybe now is when it bounces. I only start scaling out at 67.25, and set a target after that, hoping it goes further up.
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Bounced on Monthly 200MA exactly, where I had an order that did not get filled. But not really bouncing hard. Not even going to watch for the next couple of hours unless I hear an alert pop.
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YES! This is what I want to see. Run into my long order, do not fill me, and then pump incredibly. Yeeees! If we go higher than 67.13 there won't be any stopping it. Gosh I love being unlucky so much it turns me on. Going to set orders 1 contract at a time next time, that way can't not get filled MUAHAHAHAHA.
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This February, Clean Technica quoted Norway’s energy operator Statnett as saying: “The power grid will probably cope, because even though the number of electric cars increase, electricity consumption is increasing at a slower rate. Even when all cars run on electricity, it will only increase electricity consumption in Norway by about 6%, and if charging is done intelligently, the load at peak will only rise a few percent.”
==> charging is done intelligently ==> intelligently ==> intelligent
Hahahaha! Good luck with that one.
Trump thinks he can save his economy by pressuring Oil producers to not go as high as 80-100$ hehehe it's going down wether he likes it or not. The years of manipulative policies push the stocks market and real estate to the point of no return. It went down already but that was just the beginning, and if the government does anything they can to save it, they will just make it worse it will end up crashing even harder :D
End of the line for the scheming weasels.
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Fakeout! Inside bar break but no follow up, or is it coming later? All eyes on 67.13 thought.
I am in the red on this trade. I'd be well in the green if I got filled :D Never trading these troll futures again if it didn't dip (or go up) 8% at least.
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If 65$ does not hold I sell my bags at a loss and curse why did I get involved with Oil it has an international group of governments working together to manipulate the price openly. And look to long in the next support area 59-61$.
From now on I only trade this if there's a major move. It's better. Hitting a weekly support or fib of a 3 months impulse. 8% retrace is absolute minimum to go long for me.
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It is now clearly highly probable we completed 5 impulses, and on ABC, BUT where does A end??? Would have been safe to wait for 0.382 fib here. Oh well we will see.
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Elliot wave theory also says that if wave 2 is small, wave 4 is a big retrace. Prepare ur ***** Muh bags :(
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Oil going up nicely, but can it go all the way to 0.382 fibo? Never aiming for small moves again there. That's only for trading over at least a few days. Probably...
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Would be a huge win and I would be swimming in cash if I got filled... Next time...
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Got a higher low on Oil!
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Mooning. This is going to be a loss in total because I didn't get filled down there... Also didn't know how this chart worked, now I do. Killed my stats...
Stupid.
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Wrong chart...
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Oil going up muhahahaha. Maybe, even thought I got unlucky, I can BREAK EVEN MUAHAHAHA.
Looks like it is deciding whether or not it can pass 67.5$ Let's go up up up! :)
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Oh apparently I had orders to close some of my Oil positions to reduce my risk :( If I close now it's a win :p
Make 15% more than what I lost. Would have made so much if my order got filled but it's okay.
I will close very soon.
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Not going long again unless we hit the red box and not 1 cent before!
Hello my french friend,i want to give you a hint.learn about what happend in past when usa start sanctions for us(IRAN) in oil market.lol,it can make you happy because that ruthless cruel reapeted it again lately and it will start soon unfortunately.
Good Luck
zr0s
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Can't replace the billions upon billions of upstream mula removed from the equation in the last 3+ yrs. Expl to prod cycle is 5 yrs for big finds. Won't see too many for a while to replace reserves. 2019 will be a big year when the Permian takes a big shit
Tara
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Great explanation! Thank you very much for sharing.