Bullish View!
Three 4 hour and twelve 1 hour attempts to break out into box below (top $91) have failed so far. In other words this support has held
90.7, 90.8 and 90.9 are the lowest levels any candle ventured on Monday. Pretty flat day in most time frames but what the day did allow was
three 140 -150 pip shorts(From 01:00 UTC Asian), a 100 pip short and 70 pipper and one 150 pip long too.
The fact that Long target 93.4 was not achieved on Friday 040222 had us a little off target where sniper shorts are concerned but 94.0 Sell stops
had to do the business.
The original plan was to hold everything from 93 for as long as possible and see if we could get a $20 (2000 pip) drop but this 4 Hour box and the amount of Blues in 4 hour timeframe has had us close 50% of 93 shorts at 90.9. The rest will have SL at 92.4 (+60pip) The reason for this is that if price is going to continue up, it will need to break past this zone or print some more Blue on the way to this zone. There is a Red Vector Candle that was printed yesterday on the way down.
It is there for one of 2 reasons. Either to get Mostly/fully recovered today & tomorrow and set up a further drop and it is the initiation of a strong move away from this zone to the downside. OR, we will see Blue recover it and continue rallying up to 96-97 range.
Whichever one it is, we should see go up today.
The fact that 5 shorts after making a new high, we are still in the same 4 hour box that we were in when we made that new high is making the case still Bullish in the 4 hour time frame at least.
Other reasons for remaining Bullish are as follows:
-Daily RSI Still embedded
-Some Blue Vector candles at the base of drops in the 15 and 30 min TF (not strong confirmation but signals nonetheless)
-Commodities Pump going on
-More Red Vectors above (next one 93.4)
BEARISH VIEW
IF (91) IS BROKEN TO THE DOWN SIDE WITH STRONG 4 HR CLOSE IN BOX BELOW THEN THIS IS SHORT AGAIN
This thing can drop any time as it has rallied over $11 from the low of 240122. It has however done around a $2.30 drop since the top and then held a whole day more or less at a support that it formed on the day pretty much (91) this is however the top of one of our 4 hour boxes and was the place that decided whether to hold longs from 86.8 Thursday 030222 London session on Friday 040222.
When the 08:00 UTC 040222 candle closed above 90, that was the cue to stay in the longs and aim for the top of the next box. (93.4) As we know 93.4 never came in the end but 93.17 did and the short from that range has been great so far but whether this is the $20 freefall, it doesn't look that way just yet.
What do we need to see to be fully Bearish again?
-Box below needs to be broken into and have a 4 hour close there. On the 240122, there were four 1 hour candle closes in the box below (not one 4 hour close there) -one of them taking out a Green Vector candle from 140122 and price took off from there to where we are now.
(Why is it so memorable? Because we were waiting for the 81.77 Green Vector to be grabbed and used for liquidity to go up and we had buy limits there. This never happened and we had to manually enter at 81.88.)
-Daily needs to lose its embedded on the RSI
-More Bearish Confluence
-Gigantic top Red candle (Vector or no Vector) - Looking out for manipulation up before NY or Equity to use that volume to try and break box below.
If it does mange to break down the first places we are looking at are as follows:
89.9, 89.4 and 88.6 as places it can take off from again as these are the most recent Green Vector points of contact and full recoveries.
Good Luck Guys!
This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt
Three 4 hour and twelve 1 hour attempts to break out into box below (top $91) have failed so far. In other words this support has held
90.7, 90.8 and 90.9 are the lowest levels any candle ventured on Monday. Pretty flat day in most time frames but what the day did allow was
three 140 -150 pip shorts(From 01:00 UTC Asian), a 100 pip short and 70 pipper and one 150 pip long too.
The fact that Long target 93.4 was not achieved on Friday 040222 had us a little off target where sniper shorts are concerned but 94.0 Sell stops
had to do the business.
The original plan was to hold everything from 93 for as long as possible and see if we could get a $20 (2000 pip) drop but this 4 Hour box and the amount of Blues in 4 hour timeframe has had us close 50% of 93 shorts at 90.9. The rest will have SL at 92.4 (+60pip) The reason for this is that if price is going to continue up, it will need to break past this zone or print some more Blue on the way to this zone. There is a Red Vector Candle that was printed yesterday on the way down.
It is there for one of 2 reasons. Either to get Mostly/fully recovered today & tomorrow and set up a further drop and it is the initiation of a strong move away from this zone to the downside. OR, we will see Blue recover it and continue rallying up to 96-97 range.
Whichever one it is, we should see go up today.
The fact that 5 shorts after making a new high, we are still in the same 4 hour box that we were in when we made that new high is making the case still Bullish in the 4 hour time frame at least.
Other reasons for remaining Bullish are as follows:
-Daily RSI Still embedded
-Some Blue Vector candles at the base of drops in the 15 and 30 min TF (not strong confirmation but signals nonetheless)
-Commodities Pump going on
-More Red Vectors above (next one 93.4)
BEARISH VIEW
IF (91) IS BROKEN TO THE DOWN SIDE WITH STRONG 4 HR CLOSE IN BOX BELOW THEN THIS IS SHORT AGAIN
This thing can drop any time as it has rallied over $11 from the low of 240122. It has however done around a $2.30 drop since the top and then held a whole day more or less at a support that it formed on the day pretty much (91) this is however the top of one of our 4 hour boxes and was the place that decided whether to hold longs from 86.8 Thursday 030222 London session on Friday 040222.
When the 08:00 UTC 040222 candle closed above 90, that was the cue to stay in the longs and aim for the top of the next box. (93.4) As we know 93.4 never came in the end but 93.17 did and the short from that range has been great so far but whether this is the $20 freefall, it doesn't look that way just yet.
What do we need to see to be fully Bearish again?
-Box below needs to be broken into and have a 4 hour close there. On the 240122, there were four 1 hour candle closes in the box below (not one 4 hour close there) -one of them taking out a Green Vector candle from 140122 and price took off from there to where we are now.
(Why is it so memorable? Because we were waiting for the 81.77 Green Vector to be grabbed and used for liquidity to go up and we had buy limits there. This never happened and we had to manually enter at 81.88.)
-Daily needs to lose its embedded on the RSI
-More Bearish Confluence
-Gigantic top Red candle (Vector or no Vector) - Looking out for manipulation up before NY or Equity to use that volume to try and break box below.
If it does mange to break down the first places we are looking at are as follows:
89.9, 89.4 and 88.6 as places it can take off from again as these are the most recent Green Vector points of contact and full recoveries.
Good Luck Guys!
This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt
Comment:
CORRECTION! "93 Sell Stop had to do the business"
Comment:
As Well as the fact that 90.65 is the level to hold/break after 91. If this level holds then it's a very strong chance of Bull and this is the level that if broken and closed below will bring a quick $2.50 - $3 drop
Trade closed: target reached:
Absolutely Smashed and then some!
Related Ideas
