There are a few conditions developing for oil
to break out of its range. After the three month tumble oil
has reversed and is cued for a break of the reverse head and shoulders
neckline. The slowdown of growth and risk-on speculative hunger is a factor of oil
not taking off already. We expect an eventual breakout from the range crude has made for itself these past few months, but during this trade we recommend reasonable targets and short stop losses.
Yesterday OPEC talks had our attention, but very little news came from the meeting. Saudia Arabia has promised to deepen output cuts. While in the US, Congress is working on a NOPEC bill.
Importers of oil
– these countries are worse off when the price of oil
rises. JPY, CNY
, EUR, ZAR
Exporters of oil
– these countries benefit when the price of oil
rises. CAD, MXN, RUB, NOK