Crude oil is likely looking to break out of a range
Crude oil has been a tough trade lately as it has remained mostly range-bound in the past few weeks. The lack of trend has been seen in equities too (minus the trading from today). I've mostly stayed away from trying to make calls with the exception of this misstep a few days ago. Being wrong in trading is okay (and inevitable) but, for me, it's an invitation to take a step back and re-look at what may have changed.
Fundamentally, the oil case remains bullish. Saudi Arabia wants to cut production to bolster prices and recently Trump slapped sanctions on Venezuelan oil. This is somewhat offset by the massive amount of oil production that is occurring in the US, with US oil production being 23 years ahead of schedule! That all being said, prices are still very low compared to where they were 3 months ago before the Saudi cuts and Venezuelan sanctions.
In the chart, above we see symmetry in two 16-session ranges with a dip in the middle. There is no rule that says we have to breakout in a symmetrical fashion to how we broke down, but often charts do follow these patterns. For that reason and all of the reasons stated above, I like buying oil on a breakout, which I believe we may be seeing right now.
I would be a buyer of crude oil at these levels: 54.00-54.50
Target: $58
Stop $52.80
Fundamentally, the oil case remains bullish. Saudi Arabia wants to cut production to bolster prices and recently Trump slapped sanctions on Venezuelan oil. This is somewhat offset by the massive amount of oil production that is occurring in the US, with US oil production being 23 years ahead of schedule! That all being said, prices are still very low compared to where they were 3 months ago before the Saudi cuts and Venezuelan sanctions.
In the chart, above we see symmetry in two 16-session ranges with a dip in the middle. There is no rule that says we have to breakout in a symmetrical fashion to how we broke down, but often charts do follow these patterns. For that reason and all of the reasons stated above, I like buying oil on a breakout, which I believe we may be seeing right now.
I would be a buyer of crude oil at these levels: 54.00-54.50
Target: $58
Stop $52.80
Trade active:
Trade is on and the breakout seems to be getting confirmed with crude over 55 here.
Comment:
Crude over 55 on a closing basis (230pm EST today) will be confirmation
Comment:
Confirmed today. Always smart to use a trailing stop as crude can be volatile but this looks like the action we planned for.
Trade closed: stop reached:
I'm going to take this trade off around where we put it on as the action is not ideal.