Interesting statistics about this formation: http://thepatternsite.com/abw.html
According to it. 58% change that TP target will be met, that is the bottom level of where the started.
I read everywhere that the move up in oil price was more of a panic buying and short squeeze rather than a sustainable up trend. I think the chance is very high that oil price will re-test previous lows of this year.
I think it is not too late to short this. To play it safe, wait for price to possibly retrace back to green line and short from there with a tight stop when you see price starts falling from the green line again.