U.S. crude output rose by 152 ,000 barrels a day, in part because of an adjustment to address disparities between weekly and monthly data, according to the EIA’s website.
OPEC first set production targets in 1982. Since then, there have been 117 ministerial conferences or meetings of the ministerial monitoring committee, and agreement to change output on 52 occasions ("Annual Statistical Bulletin", OPEC, 2016).
Considering the entire 1982-2016 period, the base rate probability that OPEC ministers will agree to change output is almost 50 percent (tmsnrt.rs/2bjX4NB).
In the first three decades (1982-1991, 1992-2001 and 2002-2011) the probability that a meeting would end with an agreement to change output was almost exactly 50 percent.
But recently agreements to change output have become much rarer. OPEC ministers have met nine times since the start of 2012 and none of those meetings has resulted in an agreement to change output.
So considering only the most recent period, the base rate probability of an output change is far lower, and closer to zero.