As we enter Q2 2026, crude oil prices continue to point toward further upside risks in line with ongoing energy disruptions in the Middle East, despite headlines on potential de escalations.
From a price action perspective, crude is:
• Holding above the 2023 highs and resistance at $91–93 per barrel
• Showing a strong rejection from the $84 zone
• Persistently Closing near the $100 mark as markets enter the sixth week of the Middle East conflict, keeping the upside scenario favored at the start of the quarter
Bullish scenario
A close above 110 on WTI and 115 on Brent would extend upside projections toward the 118 yearly high and further into the 135–150 range, signaling continued disruption to energy supply, infrastructure, and alternative routing around Hormuz. Upside levels are forecasted via the Fibonacci extension tool placed between the lows of 2020, highs of 2022, and lows of 2025.
Bearish scenario
A close below 89 would extend short-term downside risks toward the 82 and 74 zones, aligning with the highs of 2025 and previous Middle East conflict levels, where support may emerge. A break below these levels could shift price action back toward the $60 zone, in line with broader policy-driven normalization.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
From a price action perspective, crude is:
• Holding above the 2023 highs and resistance at $91–93 per barrel
• Showing a strong rejection from the $84 zone
• Persistently Closing near the $100 mark as markets enter the sixth week of the Middle East conflict, keeping the upside scenario favored at the start of the quarter
Bullish scenario
A close above 110 on WTI and 115 on Brent would extend upside projections toward the 118 yearly high and further into the 135–150 range, signaling continued disruption to energy supply, infrastructure, and alternative routing around Hormuz. Upside levels are forecasted via the Fibonacci extension tool placed between the lows of 2020, highs of 2022, and lows of 2025.
Bearish scenario
A close below 89 would extend short-term downside risks toward the 82 and 74 zones, aligning with the highs of 2025 and previous Middle East conflict levels, where support may emerge. A break below these levels could shift price action back toward the $60 zone, in line with broader policy-driven normalization.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.