US Oil — Support Under Pressure After Geopolitical Selloff

Following the recent US–Iran agreement and the reopening path for the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets initially moved lower as traders reduced part of the geopolitical risk premium previously priced into energy markets. However, uncertainty remains around how sustainable this development will be and whether the market fully repriced the geopolitical impact.

From a technical perspective, US Oil remains within a broader bearish structure, continuing to trade inside the descending red channel that currently defines the overall directional bias.

After the recent decline, price has now reached an important area where the lower boundary of the bearish channel aligns with a key green support zone — creating a technical confluence that may attract buying interest and trigger a short-term reaction.

From here, two scenarios become relevant:

→ Bullish scenario:
If price respects the current support and shows signs of rejection, we may see a corrective move higher within the existing structure.

→ Bearish scenario:
If support fails to hold and price breaks lower, further downside could become more probable, with focus shifting toward the next major support & demand zone.

For now, the key question is:

Will support trigger a rebound, or will fading geopolitical risk continue pushing oil lower?

This is a scenario-based analysis — not a prediction.

Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for educational purposes only. It reflects personal market observations and does not constitute financial advice or a trading recommendation.

Rayan Nasser

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