Some thoughts for the coming weeks.
Borrowing 14 month cycle from @smitheric1970 chart (red vertical lines on chart) and considering the previous chart posted that showed ATR reading from 2014 and now.
Since the last 14 month low on 2016/02/17, there have been 4 instances when ADX has moved below 20 (A-D). (A) was brief so won't be considered as usually you need 7-10 days for effect. In 2 cases (B-C) prices broke out, traded $5 in breakout direction then 'V' reversed in a DMI change in dominance for a $10 change.
The 4th is currently in progress (D). Considering the behavior of TSI, that the legs of these breakouts and reversals was ~2 weeks each for both, then my thoughts for coming weeks are:
Borrowing 14 month cycle from @smitheric1970 chart (red vertical lines on chart) and considering the previous chart posted that showed ATR reading from 2014 and now.
Since the last 14 month low on 2016/02/17, there have been 4 instances when ADX has moved below 20 (A-D). (A) was brief so won't be considered as usually you need 7-10 days for effect. In 2 cases (B-C) prices broke out, traded $5 in breakout direction then 'V' reversed in a DMI change in dominance for a $10 change.
The 4th is currently in progress (D). Considering the behavior of TSI, that the legs of these breakouts and reversals was ~2 weeks each for both, then my thoughts for coming weeks are:
- price breaks out of current consolidation to the upside pulling TSI up higher
- The run will last for ~2 weeks with a target of ~$58
- Price will terminate in a 'V' reversal
- During this run up, ATR will drop to a lower level than in mid 2014 at the high for that year
- The following 'V' reversal and ensuing drop will begin a move that will be more reflective of mid 2014->2015 based on the ATR readings that could be achieved in the next 2 weeks
Comment:
watching renko for (E) leg of 'M' pattern to complete to look for a long position. 52.30 looks like a key support area and looks like where 200EMA on 4hr will align.
