MrRenev

Demand will go up...

TVC:USOIL   CFDs on WTI Crude Oil
So Russia said they would provide everyone with fuel, they said "no one in Europe will freeze". They also reminded us they are tired of sanctions, which weaken the US currency.

Recently, and this was ignored in US and international news, the US stabbed France in the back. France that still think they are a major power (they are still in the top 5 or at least 10 military, top 4 exporter, top 10 economy not top 5 (moderatly hurt by decades of moderate socialism), and the EU backed France as well as also was unhappy the US took a sudden unilateral decision without talking to them.

Russia likes making money, but what's the point of just selling $250 barrel oil for a few months when you can move the (long term) rudder.

Already posted about Oil long, didn't really get to buy. I just was able to buy once but then the price went negative and there was nothing I could do about it. And then the price went up in a straight line with no warning no corrections no pattern no waves nothing I could do about it again. Note the timeframes I used monthly or 3 month candles.

Haha I remember when silly economists with fancy titles and diplomas said by now no one would want to buy oil , that demand would get very low. These clowns.

A special thought goes for USO bagholders, thinking of economist intelligence remind me of them for some reason:

Anyway, this winter is going to be rough. Germans are already giving citizen tips on how to use firewood to warm yourself. Let's see how convinced climate change "activists" and supporters really are. Let me remind everyone these guys own cars. They don't even bother walking, too lazy. I don't even believe in climate change apocalyptic calls and I do not own a car, I walk everywhere. When they'll get cold they'll will burn all the oil and natgas they can get, indirectly of course, through "big companies", then they will blame these "big companies". They'll be no "energy saving".

Oh and since global warming is still at what was it? +15°K? And not +30 (an additional 15 because of CO2) + solar minimum it will be cold, it could be a winter colder than average. It's like with covid "At least 500 million people will die, by our most optimistic models" we didn't even see 1% of that in 2020. Even to this day, death toll is at 4.55M in close to 2 years (~60M people die of all cause each year, 3/60 = 5% so it's significant, hope this calms down all the crybabies. Doctors been warning the fats for literally 75 years and now all of a sudden everyone is surprised...).

I have no idea how much oil we have, and how much "easy" oil we have (that does not require fracking) but I know people have been getting warned for 75 years that it's not an unlimited supply. Running day to day lives on fossil fuels. Sigh. And with no alternative. Double sigh.

Oil is absolutely here to stay. It will be around, and expensive, in 10, 20, 30 years. "The progress of science" is a psyops IQ test to find deluded idiots. But in the next 6 months, 1 or 2 years I am not sure. EU suppliers, soviets and desert countries hold them by the... Russia is smart enough (I think) to be very strategic. They won't just be greedy short term they'll cooperate with Europe, maybe make some reasonable suggestion-demands.

The next resistance, at "round number" is far, but the volatility is so big it's not that far.

Sad that I completely missed out on oil since April 2020.
France before the convenient covid lockdowns had a "yellow vest" revolution going. Started by a tax on Oil . Now Oil is coming with its own tax.

The "oil shock" years are: 1973, 1979, 1990. If price action does something my brain can understand I will look into those.

I know that before that (in the 50s) the arabs had used oil as a weapon after the UK, France and Israel invaded Egypt.
And from all the money they had made in the 70s arabs & soviets created the sugar bubble. What will they buy this time with all of their money?

Funny. From wikipedia: "on October 17 (1973), Arab oil producers cut production by 5% and instituted an oil embargo against Israel's allies: the United States, the Netherlands, Rhodesia, South Africa, and Portugal.". So no UK & France? Learned their lesson.



This game is too hard. Doesn't matter if I miss out. A lot of how to call it craziness, hysteria, panic, troubles, will come out of this. Just like with covid in March-April 2020. And in April + summer 2020 I made plenty of money. I've been waiting over a year to make good profits, thought september-october might be it but nope. If people catch colds this cold winter do we get more covid total shutdowns? Also people die of cold all the time in the winter, the media always ignores it but they might run the story over and over this time, and create panic. Profitable panic. I want to see mass panic, I want to see fear. I'm here to keep a cool head when every idiot is going bonkers, and I'm here to take the overblown risk when others don't want it. It's not even about the fair price or whatever, it's about the fair risk. Now that, the risk, that gets over or underestimated all the time. People believe in the dumbest crap, and emotional is not a correct description, "hysterical morons" is.

USDRUB is violently breaking out by the way...
If we get access to it with our regular FX brokers it means "retail traders" have noticed, and took interest. Which means it's too late. Forget about it.

Comment: Well, the yellow vest revolution is back in France. Last time it was because of government tax on oil, now it's because of oil price itself. If muslims and Russia want to topple the french government, collapse Europe, and deal a crushing blow to the US (themselves on the brink of collapse) now is their chance. Going to look for longs on Oil, I'll never get a chance to buy otherwise (I'll get a chance once it reverses).
Comment: And here we go ;)
Lavrov declared they were suspending ties with Nato & closing the Moscow office.

They're clearly playing chess. Diplomatic tensions can be used to then limit energy supply, get the EU to their knees, and force them to make some concessions.

Opinion: Prices will stay high or keep going up until Europe acts less hostile towards Russia, perhaps muslims (and palestine) too.

Russia just be careful they don't push it too much. If they're too aggressive or blunt it won't work out their plan will fail and probably backfire. Use force and intelligence, not brute force (and brute intelligence too).