This is an interesting analysis to point out last year's relative predictability that each cycle is about 8 weeks and a bullish cycle lasts around 16 weeks
The last 52 Weeks was an (almost too perfect) sideways movement between the upper(64.00) and lower(51.00) bands. Three time the top hit 64.00 and trend changed direction. Likewise, Three times the 51 was hit and changed direction. The cycles are almost exactly 8 week cycles (green halve-circles).
Every time the bottom was hit, the next bottom was hit in 8 weeks. Almost like a loop. Every time the next 8-week cycle is NOT hit, there is another upwards movement from that to rally to the 64.00 mark. This clearly was the trading range for 2019.
There were 3 downward candles before this selloff and it fits the pattern of previous selloffs (possibly signaling the end of this cycle)
This happened for the full hear in 2019. Also, we know that USA is claiming to be supply in their oil needs completely for the first time. This can make them immune to global Oil price manipulation and a more predictable oil supply. (and price)
The attached graph predicts an upwards movement, but since the lowest point on the last cycle did NOT hit the bottom, one of 3 possibilities my play out.
1. The price can go to 51.00 Resistance changing into a bullish trend afterwards like the previous 3 times. Call orders must be created for this price with Target 1 - 60.00 Target 2 – 65.49 and worst case scenario a sell order below 48.00 with target 42.30
2. The fact that the last week closed off and did NOT hit 51 may indicate upwards movement from there either as a retraced movement to about 54.60(1-week cycle), but almost guaranteed will find follow through over 8 weeks to hit resistance around 64.00’ish and repeat or go all the way to 66.28.
P.S My Trades setup is as follows for the next 16 weeks:
The last 52 Weeks was an (almost too perfect) sideways movement between the upper(64.00) and lower(51.00) bands. Three time the top hit 64.00 and trend changed direction. Likewise, Three times the 51 was hit and changed direction. The cycles are almost exactly 8 week cycles (green halve-circles).
Every time the bottom was hit, the next bottom was hit in 8 weeks. Almost like a loop. Every time the next 8-week cycle is NOT hit, there is another upwards movement from that to rally to the 64.00 mark. This clearly was the trading range for 2019.
There were 3 downward candles before this selloff and it fits the pattern of previous selloffs (possibly signaling the end of this cycle)
This happened for the full hear in 2019. Also, we know that USA is claiming to be supply in their oil needs completely for the first time. This can make them immune to global Oil price manipulation and a more predictable oil supply. (and price)
The attached graph predicts an upwards movement, but since the lowest point on the last cycle did NOT hit the bottom, one of 3 possibilities my play out.
1. The price can go to 51.00 Resistance changing into a bullish trend afterwards like the previous 3 times. Call orders must be created for this price with Target 1 - 60.00 Target 2 – 65.49 and worst case scenario a sell order below 48.00 with target 42.30
2. The fact that the last week closed off and did NOT hit 51 may indicate upwards movement from there either as a retraced movement to about 54.60(1-week cycle), but almost guaranteed will find follow through over 8 weeks to hit resistance around 64.00’ish and repeat or go all the way to 66.28.
P.S My Trades setup is as follows for the next 16 weeks:
- - I’m opening 2 buy options both 15% of my budget at 54.24 with target 1 64.25 and target 2 74.22
- I’m opening 3 x 20 % size trades with entry 51.00 exit 1 = 56.93 2=64.25 and 3 = 74.22
I'm calling a higher low current bearish levels(54.00), but it wont hit 51.00 before going up. It's not looking like it's going under 51.00 again this year.
Let me know what you think in the comments, please.
Comment:
CCI Data confirms we are about to be bullish.