USOIL - Here we are !!

FX:USOIL   CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
1052 4 43
Well we are at the resistance support + diagnoal line up channel + PRZ shark pattern + divergence going on 4h, 8h frame
Pirce is still strong trending up and shark pattern may not work
Price approching the 0.382 retracement if this is crossed will go to 0.5 -0. 618 retracement like that usual do
The divergence going indicate more hesitation going into this resistance
Oil             is hard to predict cause maybe more manipulated than forex currency
Happy to have your opinion on it

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Agree that Oil is more manipulated than other else can such an over-supply of crude cause a massive rally? I don't trade harmonics, but I see crude oil hitting the mid 20's before above 50. I (we) could all be wrong, but I am pretty sure 23.14 - 24.67 is a valid target.
peterchung16 ShirokiHeishi
Oil has always been controlled by the Government since the age of cars. The simple reason is that the Oil is the bloodline of Economy. Without oil, the economy will collapse. Before oil, there is horse and population growth, to measure the strength of the economy. So, I don't see what is wrong with this.

The reason for this rally is that Government all over the world are setting a price for oil from further drop on Price. On Economic theory, the Government set the Price of any commodities through Currency The quantities are then diminish or rises, depending on Price. In this case, the Saudi has reached an agreement with Russia/Iran/ and other oil producer countries. Thus, the oil are expected to be floored, based upon Price.
ShirokiHeishi peterchung16
While I agree that governments try to manipulate currency through central bank measures, and I accept that fact, I don't see their net benefit to higher prices. It seems to me that if producers are threatened by the US oil boom, they would keep prices too low for those marginal producers to stay in business. Opec nations have very low cost of recovery values. When the supply/demand curve is broken then there is something else at work. No matter how much manipulators want to, they eventually lose out to market the market demands. When prices rise, more producers come into the game, when prices fall more users come into the fray. Basic I know, but demand is slowing world wide, while production 'increases'. Where is the storage for all these government purchases. We are approaching the time of pass-through, where oil will have to be sold via cash only as there is a storage issue for all those futures contracts. Here in the US, our gov. has been subsidizing oil producers for a century and offers tax benefits to the public for investment in it. This is not new, nor bad, but nothing has changed except the supply side of the equation. Nothing cures high or low prices like high or low prices. Until the supply side changes dramatically, I can't be bullish, but I may also not be in oil either. No position is a valid position. Long story short: Good trading for those who aren't faint of heart, and remember, irrational exuberance is almost always an indicator of a top. How is higher oil good for anyone except the oil companies and their employees? Great comments, I appreciated them. Good trading to you all.
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