FxWirePro
Short

EUR/JPY technicals and trade set-up

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
201 2 0
The price has rejected below 128.189 levels (see bearish candle with big real body on Friday).

It has continued to drop below supports at 127.034 levels (around Friday's low and 7EMA).

As you can observe monthly and weekly technical charts, bearish swings are drifting southwards in sloping channel testing timely supports and resistances within this channel.

Short term bulls seems to have given up the momentum in recent gains as the price curve approaches near resistance at 128.189 and 127.619 and upper BB (see red colour circled area).

Currently on daily plotting, RSI (14) trending below near 54 levels (while articulating) diverging to the previous short term short term rallies.

While, %D crossover above overbought zones signals the extreme selling momentum , as a result bears would be on upper hand.

We also make out, monthly prices hovering well below 7 & 21 moving average curves, hence it is perceived as ongoing downtrend would drag further.

Most probable scenario would be that it may dip back upto 125.175 levels and then retest of channel support is also potential scenario.

Trade tips: Option Tunnel Spread

Well, on intraday terms, we capitalize on stochastic and RSI and as they pop up with overbought pressures so far, deploy the option tunnel using ATM puts is structured as a binary version of a conventional put spread, i.e. long delta puts with higher strikes while writing the lower strikes for above mentioned targets on either side.

Once a tunnel is discovered a trade can be placed each time a candle cross the top or bottom Bollinger bands . You place a trade on the candle that crosses over the Bollinger bands . When the candle crosses the top Bollinger bands you place a down trade.

Therefore an In-The-Money tunnel would be formed of an In-the-money -0.75 delta put below the current exchange rate less an Out-Of-The-Money put above the exchange rate. The delta of -0.55 on combined position with slightly negative theta is preferred on this execution.
MiDiGre PRO
8 months ago
I suppose there was a little mistake! On the left side the graphic and title talk about USOIL but in the description you talk about EUR/JPY ;-)
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FxWirePro MiDiGre
8 months ago
Yes, realized and tried uploading monthly i/o USOil, it didn't allow us to do so, please refer monthly in place of the existing plotting, we stand by the analysis.
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