1) hurricane impact
2) eia adjustment factor swung from +500kbls/d to -500kbls/d on last report - responsible for most of the draw
we are entering turnaround season and injections will be very large
when colonial pipeline went down it opened the gasoline arb into new york harbor from europe so gasoline imports over next 2 month will be HUGE
crude imports will stay very robust
dollar is not going down anymore
Permian continues to add rigs and increase production
Libya, Nigeria, Iran, and Russia all adding production into year end
Its a disaster.
About a quarter of inventory is held by passive investors.
Trump gets elected that will all get liquidated.
Opec is stuck in a very bad place and they have no choice but to max produce because they cant meet their liabilities.
We held $4650 resistance and are now backing off of it.
The 4 month wedge on the daily is setting up for a break out next week.
It will be the start of a very big move.
Agreeing an oil production freeze that does not apply to output in the U.S. will not solve the market's problems or cause it to balance out, BP's chief economist for Russia and CIS Vladimir Drebentsov said.
"I am fairly skeptical about the potential effects of such an agreement. Even if oil producers outside the U.S. agree to freeze production, this will not solve the market's problems. Yes, prices will rise a bit. But as soon as that happens, the U.S. will ramp up production," Drebentsov said at a conference in Moscow.
It makes no sense to reduce supply in order to affect prices when there are sources for substantial growth in oil production beyond the boundaries of the agreeing countries.
"It's pointless. You simply lose your niche, transfer your potential earnings to companies in the U.S.," he said.