WTI Oil: New mega bull cycle started. $275 by 2025.
This study is based on the logarithmic 1M scale since 1990 and investigates a pattern that appears to be repeating itself. The time periods (cycles) are 1990 - 2008 and 2008 - today.
1 through 6 are the minor market phases within this pattern and basically represent the Bear Cycle with the accumulation and recovery phase. The sequence at the end of 6 and the beginning of 1 is basically the Bull Cycle.
Similarities:
** 1-2 and 3-4 are bearish legs during the 1990 - 2008 cycle they both had a roughly -60% decline. Surprisingly on the 2008 - present cycle those same legs declined around -75%. Both legs had the same percentage drop.
** The 1990 - 2008 bear cycle's (phases 1 to 6) duration was a little over 4000 days. The 2008 - present cycle's (phases 1 to 6) duration is a little under 4000 days.
With such similarities it is not odd to technically assume that the pattern will be repeated and complete the final phase which is the bull market (6 - 1).
On the 1990 - 2008 cycle the bull phase (6 - 1) lasted roughly 2400 days. Since the 2008 - present cycle is a marginally shorter, we can expect the upcoming bull cycle to also be slightly shorter, with a rough estimate of 2300 days. This actually places the next top around May 2025.
But what about the actual value, the bull cycle's peak?
Based on the bottom (phase 4) to next peak (phase 5) Fibonacci extension levels, the previous cycle high in 2008 was price just above the 4.764 Fibonacci extension level. Assuming the current cycle will continue to repeat the 1990 - 2008 sequence, we have calculated the bull market peak at $275.00. But since the bearish legs have been stronger on the present cycle we may have a slightly less aggressive peak this time, so to be fair we have a target range of $230.00 - $275.00.
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1 through 6 are the minor market phases within this pattern and basically represent the Bear Cycle with the accumulation and recovery phase. The sequence at the end of 6 and the beginning of 1 is basically the Bull Cycle.
Similarities:
** 1-2 and 3-4 are bearish legs during the 1990 - 2008 cycle they both had a roughly -60% decline. Surprisingly on the 2008 - present cycle those same legs declined around -75%. Both legs had the same percentage drop.
** The 1990 - 2008 bear cycle's (phases 1 to 6) duration was a little over 4000 days. The 2008 - present cycle's (phases 1 to 6) duration is a little under 4000 days.
With such similarities it is not odd to technically assume that the pattern will be repeated and complete the final phase which is the bull market (6 - 1).
On the 1990 - 2008 cycle the bull phase (6 - 1) lasted roughly 2400 days. Since the 2008 - present cycle is a marginally shorter, we can expect the upcoming bull cycle to also be slightly shorter, with a rough estimate of 2300 days. This actually places the next top around May 2025.
But what about the actual value, the bull cycle's peak?
Based on the bottom (phase 4) to next peak (phase 5) Fibonacci extension levels, the previous cycle high in 2008 was price just above the 4.764 Fibonacci extension level. Assuming the current cycle will continue to repeat the 1990 - 2008 sequence, we have calculated the bull market peak at $275.00. But since the bearish legs have been stronger on the present cycle we may have a slightly less aggressive peak this time, so to be fair we have a target range of $230.00 - $275.00.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com/u/InvestingScope) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
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Over 65% accuracy on Private Signals Channel.
Over 15% return monthly on our Account Management Plan.
Account RECOVERY services.
Free Channel: t.me/investingscopeofficial