Falling Stars and Rhino Catchers

I had hoped to take a few days to get back into the water... But looks like we need to jump on this big Bombora.... It could play out for a while. Funny how these things form. We need to get a pretty good run from the first drop in. Bros with Rhinos will soon join the crew. We are going short with a stack of bones. Let's just hope we avoid a rail bang...

I see stars... Falling stars in the chart. We are going Short now, picking up stacks with each cut. Be safe bros.

Comment:

That's Rhino Chasers.... Frigin iPad keyboard spellcheck bullshit.

Comment:

Lots of kicking but not much swimming. I still think the future is in the stars. This is a classic evening star pattern, and our 2nd one in a week. Just no momentum left in rally....

Short at $44.60
We add to our shorts at $45.20

We remain short.

Comment:

This is very concerning... His departure can only signal a change in policy, and since he was the biggest backer of the "keep pumping policy", it is very likely SA will be open to some production cuts. Naimi pumped oil to keep others like Iran, Seria, & Putin, from gaining too much power.

This could be huge... If it truly changes the production policy. Why change?? There are many reasons.. Putin seems ready to start a conflict to raise oil prices. At these rates Putin will fail. SA have no respect for Obama.. Would he really help keep Putin at bay? Many people believe SA is keeping oil down to punish frackers.... That is just a side effect of the main policy. But..but...many believe that! So does SA want to be hated by America if Trump was to win? Do you believe the Saudis believe Trump understands the nuances of their pump policy... No, of course not.

Here is an article... It is from several years ago. Ali al-Naimi Is... was the driving force in keeping oil flowing.

www.news.com.au/fina...df1a38526a7e326658ac

I can only see this as Bullish Oil.... :(

Comment:

Big News... Not like the Canadian Smoke Screen

www.news.com.au/fina...df1a38526a7e326658ac

This is very concerning... His departure can only signal a change in policy, and since he was the biggest backer of the "keep pumping policy", it is very likely SA will be open to some production cuts. Naimi pumped oil to keep others like Iran, Seria, & Putin, from gaining too much power.

Comment:

Natürlich, it's always the way... the week I go trekking over to see my North sea crew in Aberdeen, I find myself with toes over and trying to avoid a big pearl with a new short.

The gap will be our first clue. If up more than a than a hair, it may be the signs of things to come. Our shorts may get caught on inside of the this set. But if the gap is only mild up or flat, ....I'll hold our shorts. If big up, we'll be stopped out.

More importantly if the gap is up big, we will start looking at adding some big longs. The Canadian bonfire was always going to be distraction to prices, but even if that beach was reduced to glass with zero production, North America is awash in oil. Sure the talking heads will push the smoke, but the real news is happening at the east end of the beach. If the Saudis are truly yelling "outside", and plan to change production, then we could see a new day in longterm action. If on the other hand, the Saudi's change was just the retirement of a hawk, only to be replaced by a stronger hawk, we could see this level continue to break as the Saudis pump each wave to much lover levels.

Many weatherman have predicted a big swell since low tide. But the futures and history have kept most bets below $55 for the season. A real change in Saudi policy could make that look like an ankle buster, or dreams of old.

Mind the gap...

Predictive COG wave

Comment:

I remember when oil would change 10% if a tanker was hijacked. Today, less than a 2 years later a fire in the oil patch, the size of a small country, hardly moves the tide.... It's early yet, but today's gap was well within the range of foam to be expected in these news fueled storms..

We'll watch the flags, as coldwater bros come to life...but for now we remain short.

Predictive COG wave

Comment:

Hyper weekend for sure.... Taking on Friday shorts is always a buzz kill, but the stars in the candles were yelling drop-in. The Hodads have been yelling from the TV, but with all their noise, they have only managed an Asian small gap opening. Judging by the flags.... the gap was just the Barneys not committed to a big wave, or who's foamies can't handle the chop. I'll stick with GMT trading hours, those early Monday morning Asian dudes don't offer a clean setup.

We remain short.

Comment:

We see nothing that says there are gorillas in the mist. From the top of the GMT open, to pending cocktails at the shack. This Teahupoo looks like it will continue lower. Canadian smoky says keep your gear as rain in hood. S&P's hookup seems to faded.

We have added to our shorts @ 43.52
We are now about 50% into set.

Tomorrow is pack and travel.. Less time to manage chart. Be safe bro

Trade active:

Still Short

Comment:

Overnight gap and action out east did nothing but fuel the hopes of the those looking for a long. But even with all the Canadian smoke and Saudi sand in the air, my indicators all point south. Like the October move, this one may get spooky with 6-8% switchbacks. But for now all the News ripples seem done... looks like 42 is next big bail and crises. Off to the shack.. Be safe.

Stay short bro..

Comment:

It's days like today that make you glad to be doing something else. Glad I'm on the road today... Didn't have time to cry or cheer. Still looks rather week and all my indicators. No real commitment to bull or bear.

Dinner in Houston, Lunch in Piccadilly.. We remain short. Be safe!

Comment:

Trade closed: stop reached:

So we ate a -3.2% loss when we stopped out at about 46.5.

We did +34.4% ladt year, and are at +17.3% ytd on Oil.

Our long term view remains bullish. Sub $40 by end of year.