chartwatchers
Long

Energy trade 4 - 200 SMA

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
9061 123 117
4 months ago
I've started to post an Energy / Stock / Metal Trade for the followers to trade.
I will post the update in the "update status" section of the portfolio post.
Starting capital is 10.000 $ in each portfolio. When I close the actual trade I will move the whole amount to the next trade - in this case it will be Energy trade X.
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I moved 10.000$ starting capital+13.620$ profit and the rest of the opened positions:
1000 ARP             long 0,8$
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The 200 SMA played an important role in oil's past performance.
I will take some awful chances and go long with a SMALL position from here.
We are on the 6th day of panic selling - usually lasts for 6-9 days in oil             .
We can easily drop to 37-38$ from here. I will be adding there.
This is a very important resistance should bounce for at least 1-2 days from here...

4% of the total capital only !

BUYING 200 US Crude October at 41.32$.
( Here at the chart the price is 40.58$)


4 months ago
Comment: No stops for this position.
The position size is very important !
If you go all in here you can loose everything.
4 months ago
Comment: It seems we bought the exact bottom at the 200 SMA.
snapshot
4 months ago
Comment: Buying 300 OAS (Oasis Petroleum) at 7.51$
4 months ago
Comment: Buying 300 LGCY (Legacy Reserves) at 1.71$
4 months ago
Comment: We missed ERX...
snapshot
4 months ago
Comment: Buying 500 SXE ( Southcross Energy Partner)
4 months ago
Comment: Holding the gains near to the close , energy stocks in a rally mode.
Buying 400 US CRUDE October at 41.60.
4 months ago
Comment: And we are back above the 200 MA
4 months ago
Comment: Buying 100 ERX at 28.40. If we continue the rally tomorrow I will buy 100 ERX again.
3 months ago
Comment: Closing the 100 ERX position at 30.30. Only the ERX.
3 months ago
Comment: It's good that we jumped out of ERX.
We will get a better buying opportunity and don't have to worry about margins while oil ios printing the double bottom.
snapshot
3 months ago
Comment: Buying 100 ERX at 31.81$.
3 months ago
Comment: Buying 100 ERX at 32.50$.
Just matter of time and it will break out.
3 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
3 months ago
Comment: Today I will make a fast calculation how much money do we have at the energy trade.
It shows exactly my personal trades on my account.
I just play with a few more zeros.
3 months ago
Comment: I will do an interesting thing now.
I'm turning the capital into oil shares as oil is printed a horrible rally. I think oil shares will perform better from now in the following days.
I have 600 US CRUDE. I will seel 200 US Crude and will buy 200 ERX at the same time
3 months ago
Comment: Selling 200 US Crude October at 48.50$
Buying 200 ERX at 32.88$
3 months ago
Comment: Selling 200 US Crude October at 48.90$ (200 US CRude left)
Buying 200 ERX at 33.3$.
This is going to be our spaceship.
3 months ago
Comment: Buying 200 ERX at today's pullback at 33.10
3 months ago
Comment: I hope it's clear why did I switch to ERX.
Even if it's 3x ETF its only down o.5% while oil is down 2%
3 months ago
Comment: We are almost there:
Buying 100 US Crude October at 46.53$.
The other 100 I will buy at 46.30.
3 months ago
Comment: Unfortunately I couldn't post here only at the " Red candle day" post that I'm buying.
So now I will post here. But I will buy at this price where we are now.
3 months ago
Comment: Buying 300 US CRUDE November at 48$.
3 months ago
Comment: I'm almost 100% sure the pullback is done.
3 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
3 months ago
Comment: Buying 100 ERX at 31.81$. It's also a buy today.
2 months ago
Comment: Selling 100 US OIL Crude at 49.50 $.
2 months ago
Comment: Selling all of the rest of the USOIL position.
I will explain in the weekend oil post. We will have a pullback.
Selling 500 USOIL CRUDE at 49.76. I have only ERX now.
2 months ago
Comment: OIL at new highs but ERX stil couldn't break out...
I'm going to sell half of the ERX position.
(I don't remember how much I have here exactly I will summarize the amount later)
2 months ago
Comment: I'm doing the same thing on my energy account.
I'm moving the capital to miners. (GDX,GDXJ,JNUG,NUGT)
2 months ago
Comment: XLE/ERX seems to be filled an exhaustion gap and oil is moving down into the HCL.
I don't want to risk the position . We sold the 50% of ERX at the exact top I will sell the rest of ERX now at 33.10.
I'm out of oil now with great yearly profits. Waiting for the next long entry.
2 months ago
Trade closed manually
ice_holly01
4 months ago
Thanks CW. 37-38$ you mean support in your post, right?
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chartwatchers PRO ice_holly01
4 months ago
yes
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ice_holly01 chartwatchers
4 months ago
Thanks!!
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Staxs chartwatchers
4 months ago
So because we are a bit too early in the cycle to print ICL, logic is that 200 SMA has proven a key resistant/support line for US Crude and as such there is a good chance of a bounce off this point? But for the next 1-2 weeks a good chance the 200 SMA will break exposing maybe the lows of the April OPEC?
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chartwatchers PRO Staxs
4 months ago
37 -38 is still possible.
But I think a bounce will be here and we see how powerful. If it's reversing there will be big candles.
If there will be more pain then the bounce will not be powerful and we can get out.
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Staxs chartwatchers
4 months ago
Understood.... Thanks Apri
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WeeklyTrader
4 months ago
Danger for Oil now
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fensydyl
4 months ago
it will not be a wise decision going long before Wednesday news ;-) GLA
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webmiztriz PRO
4 months ago
wow.. loooooook at that SMA acting like the boss... A .. M .. A .. Z .. I .. N ... G.. tx arpi
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nnavarrete PRO
4 months ago
snapshot
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ja.piotr.bor
4 months ago
Really weak with the weak dollar - there is still down move till 39-39,5 for me.
But very weak and fast should be. Bottoming process is now, I think I will buy on monday.
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MC2016 PRO
4 months ago
For those going down a more traditional route (i.e. not options etc) please advise on what you'd consider the best funds or shares to capture the rebound.. ERX, others? thanks
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AYosof
4 months ago
Is it not a rally back now or shall we wait for 37-38?
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MaxSas
4 months ago
Hi Apri .. which company platform you use to analyze ?
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chartwatchers PRO MaxSas
4 months ago
ONLY TRADINGVIEW - this is the best.
I've tried many.
+2 Reply
MaxSas chartwatchers
4 months ago
thanx alot
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Superkloton chartwatchers
4 months ago
I agree man, I’ve tried many myself and TradingView is not only functional but beautiful as well. Love it. Wish my broker would allow trading with it, too! ;)
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chu168 chartwatchers
4 months ago
you do a good job,thanks .
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nnavarrete PRO
4 months ago
Yes sir, indeed we did... I've been buying the dip since 43 but today was my biggest purchase... UWTI AT 17.77 - almost same price than I bough it back in Feb ($16.01)

Now.... lets talk NGAS when you have a chance... Look at this block trade from yesterday BLOCK TRADE: $DGAZ 3,000,000 shares @ $6.28
+1 Reply
What would be the point of entry into this trade. Should we wait for a pullback? Also, UWTI vs ERX which one is better for this trade. I am leaning to UWTI since stocks did not correct much on this pull back.
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Superkloton
4 months ago
Nice move up, glad I bought with you, thanks! It might test the bottom again though before it really rallies.
+1 Reply
bertcoin PRO
4 months ago
Thanks again Arpi for helping define this target region to start entering longs. Some oil trading friends of mine like your $37-$38 bottom as they say the crack spread is still too wide, so oil needs come down to bring that back in line.... (Gasoline will come up a little to help). Something more for me to learn about! Starting to accumulate UWTI (small positions!).
+1 Reply
andrej123456
4 months ago
Please what are ARP shares, I cant find them in my broker under this abbreviation.
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andrej123456
4 months ago
Hello Arpi. I want to buy oil companies shares. I am thinking about OAS + I dont know... Also I want the ARP shares you mentioned in the description, but I cant find them. I have the same broker as you. Thank you !
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andrej123456 andrej123456
4 months ago
Or would I wait a bit more for buying ?
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chartwatchers PRO andrej123456
4 months ago
Forget ARP
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
4 months ago
OAS is good today. I also bought some
+1 Reply
ice_holly01 chartwatchers
4 months ago
Are we going to wait for 37-38 next week to add position? Thanks.
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chartwatchers PRO ice_holly01
4 months ago
If we get there I will add. We are very close to the bottom.
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ice_holly01 chartwatchers
4 months ago
Thanks Master!
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andrej123456 ice_holly01
4 months ago
Thank you.
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jualex chartwatchers
4 months ago
OAS has earnings coming up...does that make you nervous? or you think they're beating forecasts?
Thanks.
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jinyuji210
4 months ago
I HAD SXE for two months since last oil rally to 51. but it didn't perform well. hopefully this time it will. finger crossed
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andrej123456 jinyuji210
4 months ago
Didnt perform well ? Performance of the fund for last 6 months is approx. 300%. If you bought 5000 shares at 0,5USD and sold them now you would have 7500 profit, thats 300% . I couldnt because I didnt have my brokerage account that time :( . I will wait a few days and buy them too...
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jinyuji210 andrej123456
4 months ago
I bought @ 2.14. love price,haha. it seems that it has strong support @1.8
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andrej123456 jinyuji210
4 months ago
Probably it has, but I now BELIEVE that oil will return to multi year lows this time so I will wait with buying any energy stocks. I have bought 750 LGCY yesterday already and I will hold them even through following decline
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jinyuji210 andrej123456
4 months ago
i think LGCY is a good choice. i will keep an eye on it.
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laksili1
4 months ago
hi apri
which broker with you. i need a advice
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andrej123456 laksili1
4 months ago
Hi man. I already asked him the same question before. He is with Saxobank.
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chartwatchers PRO andrej123456
4 months ago
Correct. SAXO
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ja.piotr.bor
4 months ago
I'm buying position on monday, what do you suggest ? Because it seems to be the bottom (ideal 40.58 you have chosen).
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Your chart label says "SMA" but i can only repeat your chart by using the EMA. Also noticed the legend on your chart says "200 EMA."

Great analysis, will be watching for your updates.
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dannyinhouston PRO dannyinhouston
4 months ago
Sorry I meant MA, can you please clarify which moving average you are using here?
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Staxs dannyinhouston
4 months ago
SMA = Single Moving Average or Moving Average,
EMA = Exponential Moving Average
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pbartashevich PRO Staxs
4 months ago
SMA = Simple Moving Average
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andrej123456 dannyinhouston
4 months ago
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/movingaverage.asp
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andrej123456 andrej123456
4 months ago
hey man, but arent you too young for trading ? :D
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chartwatchers PRO dannyinhouston
4 months ago
MA=SMA it is the simple moving average
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ArtFly
4 months ago
What is your SL at ERX?
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chartwatchers PRO ArtFly
4 months ago
No ERX position yet. For that we need S&P to break out significantly or print a pullback
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ArtFly chartwatchers
4 months ago
I thought you already bought
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I think today's price action postponed reversal in XLE/ERX for a week or so. On Friday it was completely different picture. I got out of oil stocks today in the morning. Here is what I see for XLE:
snapshot

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pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
4 months ago
We may have a bounce from black dash line but if we break it. I don't think 200 SMA will hold. Maybe to the point to retest it.
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andrej123456
4 months ago
After today I was thinking about oil. I think you are the best here, imho. But do you think that this type of relentless decline is really needed to balance the crude oil market ? I think that this time it will be quite different than in 2008 crude sell-off. Check correlation between EUR/RUB , USD/RUB , brent crude ( which is just copying WTI). MAYBE its time for 3rd cycle. It seems to me that EUR/RUB has to rally to 80-90 before crude prices can go up. What do you think ?
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Andrei, I agree with you about rubble :). It is nice indicator for oil bottom. But we can have a quite nice bounce before bigger drop.
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andrej123456 pbartashevich
4 months ago
I definitely agree. Or maybe the third USD/RUB cycle will go max to 70. Dollar index is getting weaker and weaker so it will be much more harder for the US to push it back down... I really dont know if they will be capable to devaluate the ruble more one more time, but anyone must agree they are trying to quite hard right now :D ... They will have to come up with something new to push crude back to 30-35, maybe a falsified EIA results :D ... I am just a newbie trader trying to understand this manipulated crude market
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ArtFly
4 months ago
What about with ERX?
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suli ArtFly
4 months ago
Is ERX better than UWTI? But why should oil go up, they are producing more and more oil like Saudi Arabia and Iran wants to get into the market too. Overproduction causes usually a drop in price
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We buying but are we calling today's low ICL? Today's candle is reversal day if confirmed tomorrow by higher close. WTI was 1 cent lower than yesterday.
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bertcoin PRO
4 months ago
Thanks Arpi! Was waiting for 38 for the final buy. You and other wise chartists I follow all had a box between 38 and 42 and we've split the lower half of that box nicely, bottoming at 39.23. I'm in UWTI averaged about $17.50. On the gold train, the oil train, and thinking we might have missed the NGAS train, but not sure yet.
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caneman
4 months ago
Well, it seems that the cycle lows may have printed today with the low and subsequent reversal bar, even though the volume was not spectacular... if true then the shorter DCL and longer ICL both printed about 7 days later than I expected, but we will have to see if there is follow through the next few days, need some more volume... keeping fingers crossed, entered yesterday UWTI
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newatthis PRO caneman
4 months ago
Nice timing...I entered UWTI one day early at 17.60 but still green after today.
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rzvfx
4 months ago
Time to go Long on WTI ? Break-Up the down trend channel yesterday and retest today - maybe tomorrow.
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XLE - we have re-entered the downward channel. I think XLE will tag $62. That would be a completion of Zig-Zag or ABCD correction. I am intent to start buying there. Here is chart:
snapshot
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sunnyb
4 months ago
Hello Arpi, what is your current strategy with LGCY after their earnings yesterday? hold, add or sell?
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andrej123456
3 months ago
I have bought oil shares with you, but not crude . I want it too. I want to buy e-mini November futures. Would I buy it on monday / tuesday ? Or rather wait ? I am little bit afraid of the dollar index, if it can strenghten more it probably can push oil lower, I dont know.
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AYosof
3 months ago
what is the double bottom targets?
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ja.piotr.bor
3 months ago
NIce reversal for double bottom today. Set my for 40.25 to trigger, but maybe I will edit it to 39.5, because it seems we will test it again
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investment6300
3 months ago
So looking at the daily MACD and RSI it does seem that the bottom was daily DCL but timing is too short by 10-15 days...mmmm! would the DCL hit same resistance looking at RSI , MACD? What technicals will highlight other Point of view except too early for cycle id we see conflict...the ideal wish..hahaha
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investment6300
3 months ago
What is your take on oil going back to resistance..I shorted at the triple touch going down! Ideas?
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Nightstar investment6300
3 months ago
OIL just printed an ICL and bounced off the 10DMA today (Aug 11th) with more than enough conviction. Why in the world are you shorting?? You should be scaling in at every opportunity, not the other way around!
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investment6300 Nightstar
3 months ago
Stupidly thought it was doing a double bottom..mm with triple top but got out with 4 th...
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investment6300 Nightstar
3 months ago
after 3 touch would break down not clever move in a swing trade for a quick short...but thats how we learn
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investment6300 Nightstar
3 months ago
The other fact it seemed a few 5-7 at least before ICL looking at DCL count then
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investment6300 Nightstar
3 months ago
snapshot

earlies cycle low was 22 days few months ago, but on 20 ? average 30-35 little surprise after went long from bottom
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michaelkid_wang
3 months ago
Hi Apri, did you reenter the ERX yet?
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epalazzo
3 months ago
Why did you buy ERX now? Not waiting until the pullback of oil & stocks?
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO epalazzo
3 months ago
S&p and Nas was down today. Oil shares were in a rally mode. It seems s&p and nas will have a shallow dcl only.,
And might not affect erx. It seems wants too break out. I dont want to left behind. Soon everybody will realize that the oil bear is over. The oil rally will knock everyone's door. These shorted-to-death oil shares will print an unstoppable rally. I wanna be in.
+1 Reply
AlbertBa PRO chartwatchers
3 months ago
analysis is great, but be careful.
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epalazzo chartwatchers
3 months ago
Thanks for the answer. I get it now.
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Tj PRO
3 months ago
Arpi, sorry for such question. Does 400 US CRUDE October means that you are 400 lots in with 1.5 mln ? thank you
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AaronSwan PRO
3 months ago
Thougts on oil today any pullback or just hope in?
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ice_holly01
3 months ago
Buying ERX 32.6. Thanks.
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bertcoin PRO
3 months ago
Your sharing is adding a few more zeros to my accounts too! 8-)
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Bearbud bertcoin
3 months ago
Hello Bertcoin. Do you think Oil will pullback or is it heading up?
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bertcoin PRO Bearbud
3 months ago
I have been following the master, Arpi, up on this one. I will start to worry around $50-$52 on USOIL (WTI) or if Arpi posts something else. Oversupply and strong resistance under 52 vs. a falling dollar tug-of-war.
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Bearbud bertcoin
3 months ago