More later... For now just logging strokes. Short at 46.50..first batch. 25% batch size.
These White guys are representative of the US play.. Not just in rig count and inventory.. But in banking, credit, cap/ex, and jobs. History doesn't repeat... But I rhymes. So.. Is this decoupling a sign? Is it going to react or is it predicting the world's harmonics.
We remain short .... Mind the foam.
We remain short for the road trip....
Here we are at the peak of family truckster season, when all the sheep are on the move, but we see the tide breaking at levels far below suppliers needs. Short of a real war, there is little hope in world utilization popping.... SA is at pre-1975 market share levels and now totally control the cost of every barrel.
Using any squeezes to add to our shorts. We are about 80% into our coin.
We remain short.
We remain short, and continue to add shorts on strength.
We remain short.. and expect a few 8% days ahead.
We remain short with prices consolidating within the channel....
By mid June the boys know how much oil will be used throughout the summer... Even if they are wrong by 150% -200%, unless that clearly shows a big inventory hole... Well then we get another summer of falling prices. If anything... inventory is going to grow.
While talking heads say we have bottomed, we are using this as opertunity to add shorts, historical patterns aren't just technical.. Weather, driving, production flow, these all have harmonics. So I ask.. Is the world in recovery? Are things better than last year? Has SA given any clue to increasing prices??...
Big swings ahead. We are short and will be adding on strength. Be safe..
Crazy week, drove through the Texas & Louisiana's oil alley, floods may have been a boom for Uhaul around Baton Rouge, but all operations are green, and we have oil everywhere... I mean everywhere... Headlines focus on changes in production and inventory.. MoM or maybe YoY. But step back and look at your boots... See that black stuff.... It's oil.
Pick your channel.... We see the machines throwing the curves some act early some slow their roll... But the direction seems clear to us.
We remain short and might add more shorts on any pop-ups. Be Safe...
On our trade.. Why didn't we cover at 40? Well hindsight is always 20/20.. And we could have flipped the trade, but we felt channel had more legs. This isn't the first time we have made a +10% round trip on oil. But if you confident in your 3 month forecast then its a tax event you avoid.. Ha. Just kidding. But thats what swing'ing is...
We see no change in our year end target. As with last cycle, there will be plenty of opportunity to trade as range will increase as we head into the end of the month. We see oil remaining in the main down channels but the next 3weeks could be sideways as rumor, new, etc, battles fundamentals. We remain short and will add more on strength.
Like the recent historic short squeeze.. There are massive physical hedges going on oil, this requires longterm capital. Not something to store oil in just out behind the barn. Something that needs utilization for years... Not just a few quarters.
We remain Short.. We will be closing this "published idea" but not the trade. Out shorts (averaging 47.10) remain open. This published idea was started with the Summer Cycle. Now that we are past summer peaks on consumption I want to transfer to my daily chart as the idea base. Published Ideas get too long on multi month swing trades.
I only ride big board shorts when the tide is right. To that I'm looking for break to 38'ish.