Oil has spent the last two months doing exactly one thing: breaking structure. Since the June highs, every rally has been sold, every low has been taken, and price is now sitting inside the lower gap zone around 69, right on top of a weak low.
This is where it gets interesting. Price is compressed between untapped liquidity below and two unfilled inefficiencies above. Weak lows rarely survive, but the reaction after they're swept is what actually matters.
The key levels are clear: the resistance cluster around 72–74 where the last break of structure originated, the gap resting at 81.7–82.2, the strong high liquidity zone up at 108–112, and the untouched demand block sitting at 53–56.
From here, I see four possible paths.
Path 1: Price fails to reclaim anything, the weak low gives out immediately, and we slide straight into the 53–56 demand zone. The most aggressive continuation — no relief, just distribution.
Path 2: Price bounces into the 72–74 resistance cluster, gets rejected at the origin of the breakdown, and then rotates down toward 53–56. A cleaner short setup with better location.
Path 3: The bounce extends further and fills the gap at 81.7–82.2 before sellers step back in. Deeper retracement, same destination — the liquidity below still gets collected.
Path 4: Buyers reclaim the gap area and hold it. Structure flips, the downtrend loses its grip, and the market goes hunting the liquidity resting above the strong high around 108–112. The least likely path today, but the one nobody is positioned for.
As always, we prefer following the reaction rather than predicting it.
EQC follows the reaction.
The market decides whether this low is weak or just patient.
Hidden in plain sight. EQC.
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Financial Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor, your crypto influencer, or your emergency hotline when volatility discovers your stop loss. Always do your own research and never trade solely because colorful arrows suggest a brighter future.
This is where it gets interesting. Price is compressed between untapped liquidity below and two unfilled inefficiencies above. Weak lows rarely survive, but the reaction after they're swept is what actually matters.
The key levels are clear: the resistance cluster around 72–74 where the last break of structure originated, the gap resting at 81.7–82.2, the strong high liquidity zone up at 108–112, and the untouched demand block sitting at 53–56.
From here, I see four possible paths.
Path 1: Price fails to reclaim anything, the weak low gives out immediately, and we slide straight into the 53–56 demand zone. The most aggressive continuation — no relief, just distribution.
Path 2: Price bounces into the 72–74 resistance cluster, gets rejected at the origin of the breakdown, and then rotates down toward 53–56. A cleaner short setup with better location.
Path 3: The bounce extends further and fills the gap at 81.7–82.2 before sellers step back in. Deeper retracement, same destination — the liquidity below still gets collected.
Path 4: Buyers reclaim the gap area and hold it. Structure flips, the downtrend loses its grip, and the market goes hunting the liquidity resting above the strong high around 108–112. The least likely path today, but the one nobody is positioned for.
As always, we prefer following the reaction rather than predicting it.
EQC follows the reaction.
The market decides whether this low is weak or just patient.
Hidden in plain sight. EQC.
Like, Follow, Boost, Join, Thank You!
Financial Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor, your crypto influencer, or your emergency hotline when volatility discovers your stop loss. Always do your own research and never trade solely because colorful arrows suggest a brighter future.
Trade active
Two weeks ago oil sat on a weak low at 69 with four paths ahead. Paths 1 and 2 are gone. The low held, the 72-74 resistance cluster fell without a fight, and price ran straight into the gap at 81.7-82.2.This is the decision zone. Only two paths remain.
Path 3: sellers defend the gap, the bounce dies here, and price rotates back down to collect the liquidity at 53-56. Deep retracement, same destination.
Path 4: buyers reclaim the gap and hold it. Structure flips bullish and the market hunts the liquidity above the strong high at 108-112. Two weeks ago this was the path nobody was positioned for. Today it is knocking on the door.
The reaction inside 81.7-82.2 decides everything.
As always, we prefer following the reaction rather than predicting it.
EQC follows the reaction.
The market decides whether this low is weak or just patient.
Hidden in plain sight. EQC.
Like, Follow, Boost, Join, Thank You!
Financial Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor, your crypto influencer, or your emergency hotline when volatility discovers your stop loss. Always do your own research and never trade solely because colorful arrows suggest a brighter future.
Trade closed manually
Well, well, well... who could guess we were heading straight to Path 4 ????Posting an updated version of the chart. Thank you
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.