Hello, UST is currently bouncing from the green support. If i should guess we will break it at some point and make new lows as this looks like dead cat bounces to me. The Supply is still at 11 Billion, down from 18B before the crash. so effectively 40% of the Supply got already converted back to Luna. still 60% more to go. The future of UST and if it has a chance to go back to a dollar will depend on whether the next time the UST to Luna swaps are enabled there will be enough converts.
For UST to have atleast a small chance of going back to 1 USD i think we would need less then 1B UST supply. Even if it goes below 1B supply, it is still a unbacked stablecoin but it is way easier to bring it back to a dollar with smaller supply. In my estimate like 100-300 million actual USD could bring it back to 1 USD if the Supply would be less then 1B. Also UST Supply < Luna marketcap is neccesary for a re-peg.
Lets hope all these new LUNA gamblers keep buying Luna until the UST redemption is enabled again... Recently daily dedemption ammount was changed to 4x the previous rate, which gives some hope that UST Supply could get under 1B before Luna may get delisted etc. You can watch UST Supply here: messari.io/asset/terrausd/chart/sply-circ
Disclaimer: I have buy order at 0.0001-0.0005 UST/USD
Always DYOR and dont rely on my analysis. With current numbers (11B UST Supply) it doesnt look like UST will go back to 1 USD but under some circumstances which i descibed above there is a little (theoretical) chance. Please leave a like =)
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Is anyone here who swapped UST to Luna and sold it to USD while Luna was crashing? Im curious about the profitability of buying UST for 6c and get 1$ worth of Luna. How much USD you got per UST redemption?
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maybe its not that bad for UST holders that Ape´s (aka stupid money) arrived to Luna forum..they could be exit liquidity for UST holders basically.
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Iron Finance´s Stablecoin (algostable from 2021 which collapsed too) did actual return to 1$ peg, but it was much smaller by marketcap and its stablecoin onl went to like 0.7 USD. I think the recovery may need more time but its possible but please make you own decisions as the recovery scenario remains risky to rely 100% on.
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I think it could be actually worth buying like 5$ worth of UST at 0.0001-2. At 0.0001 you get 50000 UST for 5 Dollar. If UST should go back to 1$ (its pretty unlikely afterall, and could take even years) you got 50k, if not its just 5$ one loses.
Update on price action: UST broke the green suppport, it should now act as resistance. Until there is a plan to bring down UST Supply drastically, i think this is heading to Zero.
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Also i would be very careful to hold USDT (Tether), it is likely undercollateralised.
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1 Billion UST from LFG Reserves got burned today, UST supply now at 10B.
UST marketcap is currently 290 million. LFG Reserves is 102 million at the moment (highly volatile).
If UST price falls 66% more, LFG could use the reserves to buy the 10B UST in theory. Practically not every UST is up for sale so they cant buy all tho. If that would be theyr plan they wont say it out loud as traders would frontrun them and they would not be able to buy low. This is just a Theory and very speculative.
Thats basically my bullish thesis to buy at 0.0001-5 with a small ammount of money to "bet" that UST could return to 1$ in some months.
@Rmzncakir, i dont speak turkish, speaking german and english
Symbio_X
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@Rmzncakir, the UST supply (11 Billion) has to shrink down way more, then i would give it a 20% chance of returning to 1 USD. Currently it is unclear if UST can be transfered to Luna again. With 11B UST supply it definitely wont go back to 1$.
UnknownUnicorn3851344
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@Symbio_X, I follow you, I respect your ideas, did the cat splash you mentioned happen, is it over now?
Symbio_X
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@Rmzncakir, generally speaking chances looking bad for UST to return to 1...UST supply needs to go down alot to have a chance to return to 1$. Else im pretty sure UST will head to 0 over time. Please dont blindly trust me, always make your view of things, im far from perfect.
The problem is that UST is a algorhytmic stablecoin which isnt backed by real dollar. (which propably will never have success) UST will only reach 1$ again if people BELIEVE in it again which is easier with a smaller supply then 11Billion.