When US Tech stocks were heading in a northbound trend, nobody had a problem in 'predicting' anything.
Now we see the emergence of a death cross, and folk are struggling to believe what's happening. At each major bearish rebellion in the bear trend, there are shouts of hope.
Even slight increases in unemployment are now a cause for hope. Because hopesters 'know' that poor employment is a sign that inflation is being beaten. And if inflation is being beaten then the FED will back off with QT and interest rate hikes. Well of course it doesn't quite work like that - there is a more complicated relationship between employment and inflation.
So volatility in all markets drawing strength from US TECH has been up lately.
Two key things to watch: 1 - Amber daily ATR. 2 - 200 EMA in relation to daily ATR.
The markets have a lot of work to do before there is a clear reversal for the north. Most of them would have to break above a daily ATR and remain above for considerable time. No sign of that as yet.
Great analysis. I agree with you. In my opinion we can expect further dollar strength. This will be a downward force not only for technology but also for commodity markets. I don't expect bullish optimism in the coming months myself.
Captain_Walker
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@meszaros, Agreed. The USD (in the DXY) exceeded my wildest expectations. It's now a total melt-up. The equities markets are therefore more likely to be heading for toast. 😁