Universa - Can you trust the project?

BITFINEX:UTNUSD   Universa / Dollar
Universa has been on the scene for quite some time while not accomplishing much price-wise. The way you look at this statement very much depends on the nature of your presence; i.e. whether you are a trader or an investor, and how much is your ego involved in the project. Like many other crypto startups, Universa had attracted a large number of "wannabe-rich" traders back in 2017. Everything seemed well, until the market ride ended and false excitement went away. Many projects crashed or barely held onto life.

In fact, between the years 2018-2020 the project's ROI was below ~-95% most of the time. If your ego is involved in Universa, perhaps because you were one of those 2017 "get-rich-quick traders," then my statement is something you don't want to hear, of course. "There's a future," you fancy telling yourself. "Universa is different. Universa has potential. Soon enough, we will reach the goal."

Now, before you commit a logical fallacy, let me point out for you that I'm not saying Universa isn't different. I'm specifically pointing out how your mind thinks and clinges onto false hope, i.e. persuading yourself that Universa is different because "I'm involved in it." That's a backwards rationalization and a groundless statement. You should ideally be involved in a project because it is different, not vice versa where a project must be different because I support it. Get it? Unfortunately, that isn't how 95% of people think, and not only in regards to Universa. This is a global problem seen everywhere.

Truth hurts.

Today I will give a humble opinion on the chart with a few pros and cons. It shouldn't serve as an absolute underlying foundation for your research - as being able to tackle projects with and open, unbiased mind is a capability any successful trader or investor should have on their own. If you don't, well, you will either resort to learning it independently, keeping the status quo or calling me names. Notice the ego.

First of all, the chart may seem persuasive, especially the recent healthy growth, but only at first glance. The hidden devil you don't see is the traded volume. Almost nobody is trading. Topping at a few thousand dollars a day (at best), this is a huge obstacle for creating a technical analysis . Trends are almost non-existent, fragile. Imagine a ball of snow. Would it be reasonable to assume a little lowland clump of snow will have the same impact and meaning as a high-mountain avalanche? Of course not. Quoting a user from Universa's Telegram channel, trend is a pattern of gradual change in a condition, output, or process, or an average or general tendency of a series of data points to move in a certain direction over time, represented by a line or a curve on a graph. This is not a bad definition and you see business dictionaries use it, however it doesn't provide enough data for conducting a decision. Identifying a trend is only a part of the picture, next comes how you assign meaning to it. If we were to treat this chart the same as, for example a Bitcoin's trend, we would be overlooking important factors such as the mentioned volume .

Because I personally trade based on volatility and probability, I utilize only two states of the market: trending (price outside the first standard deviation) and not-trending (price inside the first standard deviation.) Technically, Universa is trending right now, but it means very little. On the side note, notice how the price tried to leave the band in November 2019 and February 2020, but was harshly rejected. I do like that the current movement is more gradual and steady. However, if you are a trader looking for short to mid-term solutions, I wouldn't recommend trading this chart. You'll be far better off trading other more popular pairs.

If you are an investor, and I'm not talking about the 2017 quick-hop-on train, and you truly honor the word, I expect you have already conducted a research and are invested (or not) in Universa for deeper reasons. Therefore, the following few pros and cons should have very little meaning for you, because you have already gone over them. Nevertheless, to an outside observer these are the few points I would give.
  • I apologize if it sounds dogmatic and not grounded, but smart contracts and digital money is the future. There's no way around it.
  • Universa is very much an East-oriented project. Second and Third-World countries are something many blockchain projects tend to forget about, or even not think about.
  • Complementing the second point, if Universa is successful in distributing digital cash to those who need it, there is a huge potential for changing the situation in Africa, for example. However, this must be done in a healthy way. The model of Spiral Dynamics comes in very useful when determining the physiological, psychological and geopolitical needs for such system to be implemented. You can't teach someone mathematics unless you give them food and water to fill in those more basic needs first. This is the same case. If First-World countries truly wish to help those in need, it will have to be done in a selfless, not a profit-at-first-oriented way. I hope Universa and Alexander Borodich realize this, otherwise the implementation will fail. There are evolutionary steps to be taken in Third World countries, and they are called steps for a reason. The nature of the human psyche doesn't allow us to skip them. All we can do is help the Third-World evolve in a healthy way. I'd be more than happy to discuss this further with regards to the project's details. Which unfortunately brings me to the darker side of matter.
  • Universa, unfortunately, offers very little transparency to those who are interested or invested in it. The updates are irregular, sporadic. I value 100% authenticity no matter the outcomes or current conditions, and that isn't the case with Universa. People are left with unanswered questions - and this itself is a sign of a present problem. The community managers' answers are not always clear, sometimes vague and blurry. I do understand Universa is a business, but from our nature, ego implies fear, fear implies insincerity, and insincerity implies greed. Be on the watch.
  • As of today, Universa is not traded on any major exchanges apart from Bitfinex. Therefore, people resort to using second-tier, often not very trustworthy sites (at least from my point-of-view) in an already shady environment of cryptocurrencies. Cobinhood was such one example. Would you believe I was writing letters to the Taiwanese minister?

Underlined, summed up: Universa is a project with potential, however projects are lead by people who are more or less subject to ego and greed. Especially in our environment. How Universa performs will not only depend on the technology it provides, but also on the sincerity and approach of the minds behind it. I'm pretty good at detecting when someone tries to pull off a bullsh*t; and I do have some concerns with the project for its transparency. Definitely keep Universa on your radar. A blockchain-based sugar trading platform is planned to run on Universa blockchain, and if more news like this come in, I do believe there will be a prosperous future.

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Lack of transparency is the biggest problem with this project
Most older users in the chat are blocked because of their questions
The project has had no output in the last 3 years
The main token (utn) is not listed in any exchanges
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