$UVIX volatility expansion incoming? $100+

May 18

I've had the idea for the past 9 months or so that UVIX will make a large move similar to what happened during the covid selloff. I think it's finally time for that to play out.

I think it's likely that we continue to fall into Vixperation tomorrow down into the lower support and after that happens, we'll see a large move in volatility start to play out.

I'm not exactly sure what the catalyst will be to trigger such a large selloff. Maybe the bond market? Maybe a large geopolitical event (like China taking Taiwan)?

From a technical perspective, we've topped in many names and it looks like the unpinning of vol is set to come next.

Breaking the major resistance at ~$13 will be the tell that the larger move is starting.

Let's see if it finally plays out.

May 20

Note

Bottom support tagged today. Let's see if this creates a reaction for a move up.

Jun 4

Note

Took a little longer to play out, but we should see the initial move start now. As of now, I think we'll likely tag the $12.78 resistance and reject one more time before seeing the full move happen.

I think the larger move likely happens end of July onward.

Jun 4

Trade closed manually

I sold all my VIX today... not time yet. I think parabolic move first. Sorry for the flip flop, but it's what I see on the charts and I flipped bullish.

Jun 9

Note

Still just watching to see what happens here. Just for some context, the reason why I don't think we can see a large move yet is because of the heikin ashi candles. Everytime we've seen a large move, we've seen 1 day, 2 day, through the 1 week and even 2week candles turn into green flat bottomed candles. As of now, we don't have them on any timeframe.

That and the RSI is still too low to support a large move on the daily, etc. I think we'll need some sideways choppy movement on UVIX for the coming weeks for the RSI to move up and support a larger move.

As of now, if the market keeps falling here and RSI starts to move up on all timeframes, then the earliest we could see a large move start to happen is on the 22nd candle.

I'll continue to monitor and let you know if I add my vol position back.

Jun 11

Note

Okay looking like today's move was likely the short term top. Let's see what happens over the coming weeks. From here, I'm looking for price to go back and at the minimum, retest the lows, and potentially break them.

As I said above, I'll want to start accumulating again either later in the month depending on how quickly price moves or in early July.

Will continue to update this, but as of now, I think the market bounces higher from here and we see a selloff in the vix.