ProShares Trust Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETFArca
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we are breaking out in spx daily, but are we at swing low in vix? contango is uvxy is matching what it nears as we head for high $4 range where it normally reverse splits 1:10. conveniently that puts us in the expected date range of early february. this VWAP strategy says we may be in for another long entry UVXY as we top out in es1! potentially around ftz 8, and above bands crossing bull by ftz 13.
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so when i look at uvxy short volume with adaptive cloud compared to vix it shows that were still in the downswing of volatility, and the upswing of spx technically
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by the way im not sure how i botched it but i got the timing noteably off... obviously we havent split either... i dont claim to have inside knowledge here. we will just have to wait and see. visit the proshares website for more info.
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if were not getting big shorts spx we wont see continued longs vix heres the read on the leverage
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im not saying we cant still see higher prices uvxy but i felt i wasnt strongly wording how bearish it is... high 4s again.
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so... weve learned today that in a deflationary cycle after peak inflation to have too much deflation is worse than having not enough. hopefully that helps.
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good thing we erred on the side of caution 🧏♂️
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and yes, i understand that the rate is not the core level... im linguistically simplifying here
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heres the way im looking at front month vix futures
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heres a look at what spy might do
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shorting the 4hr to daily
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im expecting to be back up by march
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usually when uvxy gets slammed to the downside right into the close while overall intermediate term outlook on spx is bear and the price is near r/s level or split is overdue like it is now if futures slip a little overnight we should pop up into the morning: interesting zones are $4.79 $4.82 $4.88 $4.94
Putin to give a speech at the UN Security Council on Feb 22. Biden is in Ukraine stumping for them. Said to give a "dueling speech". I think there is a good chance the market gets shaken up by this
winter44
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What is your buy signal? A crossing above white line?
cerealpatterns
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@winter44, basically im using volume weighted average price on this fund to detect inflows in the futures price vicariously, and not as a standalone signal. this is to outline and support my theory that the split could coincide with bullish action in vix. im using a fib time zone to match the general area of the split (we know its coming but not exactly when or where it will be) with the general area that could be conisdered oversold. some might call this cherry picking or speculation but i have historical evidence to back this (see coronavirus crash split around sinilar price along similar time cycle). you could say that as lower averages cross above higher averages and the price crosses above the average that its a bullish signal, but im more interested in what volume is doing as the price moves. this is because the way these funds pin to the futures price they attempt to track is by manipulating volume. its more revealing to see a vwap change direction than it is to see a vwaps relationship to price or other averages. quite simply the buy signal in this strategy is the point where the strat prints a buy signal, and that session closes with the buy signal intact and the following session confirms it with more bullishness. since im not using this strategy for signals instead im looking at the overall conditions of each indicator for clues as to how volume is weighing afainst the average price, thus how manipulated it is and how well or poorly its tracking the underlying index.
deadsquare214
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@cerealpatterns, love this. where did you learn how to wrap your head around these funds?
cerealpatterns
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@deadsquare214, i started when these concepts were first hitting the market. i lived through the dotcom bubble, the housing bubble and corona. my grandfather was an economist from harvard with the military. i taught myself to visually account for the intense slope of leveraged derivatives by using simple rules so i could trade with only the raw chart.
deadsquare214
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@cerealpatterns, very interesting. i look at this security in a very similar way i think. I look forward to continuing to see what you put out.
cerealpatterns
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@deadsquare214, actually its really funny if you fibo time zone dotcom bubble top to bottom monthly you see that spy peaks around fibo time zones and accum/dist & adv/decl peaks around that, and thats generally where bix starts into its peak...