HERE'S THE DEAL. THERE IS PLENTY OF CONTRADICTION IN DIRECTIONAL POSSIBILITIES WHICH MAKE IT CHALLENGING TO PLACE A PROBABILITY.
ON "USOIL DAILY" WE'RE CLEARLY HITTING A MAJOR RESISTANCE. FUNDAMENTALLY OIL IS WEAK (I.E., STRONG DOLLAR, SUPPLY/DEMAND RATIO IS STILL INCREASING).
HOWEVER, THE RISK IN THIS TRADE IS EXTREMELY CLEAR. A BREAK UNDER $50, AND WE KNOW THAT OIL WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE ITS DECLINE. A BREAK AND CLOSE BOVE $54/55 AND THIS THING IS PROBABLY BREAKING OUT.
I PRIMARILY TRADE EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS BECAUSE THEY TELL MORE THAN THE UNDERLYING STORY TELLS. IN MY EXPERIENCE, THEY ADD ADDITIONAL CONFIRMATION. WHETHER I'M RIGHT OR WRONG IS IRRELEVANT, THE BEAUTY OF THIS TRADE IS HOW CLOSE WE ARE TO KNOWING WE ARE WRONG WITH HIGH PROBABILITY.
I JUST CLOSED MY DWTI POSITION AT A 17% PROFIT. I AM NOW GOING LONG UWTI BETWEEN 2.60/2.50.