First off let me tell you:
ANY CRITICISM IS MORE THAN WELCOME AND IS HIGHLY APPRECIATED!
Now that we got that out of the way...
Table of contents:
§ 1 Introducing myself
§ 2 Talking a little bit about the company
§ 3 Technical analysis
§ 1
Hello everyone, let me introduce myself quickly as this is my first post, if you're not interested skip to § 2, and save yourself some time:
My name is Bjorn, I am a 20 year old aspiring investor from Norway, I have currently been studying technical analysis and fundamental analysis for the last 6-8 months, and have put in a small amount of my own money to test myself to see wether or not I am profitable at this stage, and in the last 3 months although I have not gained a lot, I have contained my losses to a minimum, and I have made around 0,5% (which is a joke to me but as I understand it's good compared to a lot of people).
§ 2
Now let's get to the point everybody!
Visa, as we all know, has historically been a really good company, just looking at it's chart long term you will be able to see that few companies compare.
I want to warn you I have not done the fundamentals for Visa yet, but here is what I know:
1. In the financial crisis Visa dropped ~40%, only because it was a part of the banking/finance sector, which was unjustified as the company was still doing great.
2. Since 2008, Visa has increased 700% in price.
3. Visa creates bank cards, I don't know if they have patents on the cards, but as bank cards are CE certified (meaning that all cards in the world are the same size so they will fit in all ATMS) it's worth looking into if you are looking to invest, as if it's the case they will basically own 100% of the bank card market (which is huge).
4. It is one of the only companies i've seen that gets pulled down with DJIA(USA30) and rebounds and goes even higher before the Dow rebounds.
§3
Now to my technical analysis:
As you might be able to see it looks like there was a divergence between the price and the RSI at the last bottom, from which it has rebounded.
Now, I am not an expert in technical analysis at all, nor am I even intermediate when it comes to divergences, but if anyone want to chip in you're more than welcome to.
Now, I project that price will atleast retrace to the $180 mark before the end of the year, regardless if market fear continues as it has the last year, when it hits the $180 mark I will be looking at taking a profit around the $200 mark.
I would also recommend never to short Visa, now you might think "why is that?" well because out of the last 11 years not once has it ended in the negative, which means out of 11 years you have historically a 100% win rate going long and a 0% win rate going short. It's kind of like shorting the DJIA or FTSE, you're basically asking for a 1 win per 9 losses ratio.
Again, this is my analysis, if anyone want to chip in and/or criticise my analysis please do as I always keep an open mind!
Thank you to everyone reading and have a great day!
ANY CRITICISM IS MORE THAN WELCOME AND IS HIGHLY APPRECIATED!
Now that we got that out of the way...
Table of contents:
§ 1 Introducing myself
§ 2 Talking a little bit about the company
§ 3 Technical analysis
§ 1
Hello everyone, let me introduce myself quickly as this is my first post, if you're not interested skip to § 2, and save yourself some time:
My name is Bjorn, I am a 20 year old aspiring investor from Norway, I have currently been studying technical analysis and fundamental analysis for the last 6-8 months, and have put in a small amount of my own money to test myself to see wether or not I am profitable at this stage, and in the last 3 months although I have not gained a lot, I have contained my losses to a minimum, and I have made around 0,5% (which is a joke to me but as I understand it's good compared to a lot of people).
§ 2
Now let's get to the point everybody!
Visa, as we all know, has historically been a really good company, just looking at it's chart long term you will be able to see that few companies compare.
I want to warn you I have not done the fundamentals for Visa yet, but here is what I know:
1. In the financial crisis Visa dropped ~40%, only because it was a part of the banking/finance sector, which was unjustified as the company was still doing great.
2. Since 2008, Visa has increased 700% in price.
3. Visa creates bank cards, I don't know if they have patents on the cards, but as bank cards are CE certified (meaning that all cards in the world are the same size so they will fit in all ATMS) it's worth looking into if you are looking to invest, as if it's the case they will basically own 100% of the bank card market (which is huge).
4. It is one of the only companies i've seen that gets pulled down with DJIA(USA30) and rebounds and goes even higher before the Dow rebounds.
§3
Now to my technical analysis:
As you might be able to see it looks like there was a divergence between the price and the RSI at the last bottom, from which it has rebounded.
Now, I am not an expert in technical analysis at all, nor am I even intermediate when it comes to divergences, but if anyone want to chip in you're more than welcome to.
Now, I project that price will atleast retrace to the $180 mark before the end of the year, regardless if market fear continues as it has the last year, when it hits the $180 mark I will be looking at taking a profit around the $200 mark.
I would also recommend never to short Visa, now you might think "why is that?" well because out of the last 11 years not once has it ended in the negative, which means out of 11 years you have historically a 100% win rate going long and a 0% win rate going short. It's kind of like shorting the DJIA or FTSE, you're basically asking for a 1 win per 9 losses ratio.
Again, this is my analysis, if anyone want to chip in and/or criticise my analysis please do as I always keep an open mind!
Thank you to everyone reading and have a great day!
Comment:
Also I forgot to mention, the only reason i'm not telling everyone to have as much exposure as possible in Visa is because it's important to hedge your investments, and also I am currently leveraged 1:5 in my Visa investment and therefore if something like what happened in 2008 would happen again, I would lose more than 100% of my investment. If you are not leveraged, I would recommend 50% of your banking sector exposure to be Visa. But I need to say, I am not a financial analyst, hedgefund manager or a professional financial advisor so if you take my advise you must do your own research and make sure that you are willing to lose if the market moves against you (and me).
Comment:
Price slowing down close to resistance, Looking to exit on a regular divergence
Trade closed manually:
TRADE CLOSED @ 180.05, With the rejection of the resistance and how volatile the market has been lately with the trade war with china etc, I did not care to keep this position over the weekend as there is no saying whats happening next.
I would advise people to look into:
China/Hong Kong situation
China/America situation
European Finance sector (Italy and Germany mainly as these are the ones most talked about)
Again there is no saying what the market will do next but I am very happy with how this analysis turned out.
I would advise people to look into:
China/Hong Kong situation
China/America situation
European Finance sector (Italy and Germany mainly as these are the ones most talked about)
Again there is no saying what the market will do next but I am very happy with how this analysis turned out.