If **Transocean (RIG)** doubles to **$12**, the math for your **Valaris warrants (VAL.W)** enters "intrinsic value" territory, where the leverage starts to really kick in.
Because of the **February 9, 2026 merger agreement**, these warrants will be assumed by Transocean and will track RIG's price based on the fixed exchange ratio.
### **1. The $12 RIG Calculation**
To find the warrant's value, we first determine what $12 RIG means for the underlying asset it's tied to:
* **Implied Valaris (VAL) Price:**
* **Subtract the Strike Price:** (Intrinsic Value)
### **2. Estimated Market Price of VAL.W**
Since the warrants don't expire until **April 29, 2028**, they will still carry a significant "Time Value" premium on top of that $50.94 intrinsic value.
| RIG Price | Implied VAL Price | VAL.W Intrinsic Value | **Est. VAL.W Market Price** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **$5.98** (Current) | $91.10 | $0.00 | **$11.10** |
| **$9.00** | $137.12 | $5.24 | **$21.50 – $24.00** |
| **$12.00** | **$182.82** | **$50.94** | **$68.00 – $75.00** |
### **3. The Leverage Multiplier**
If you held the warrants at **$11.10** and RIG moved to **$12**:
* **RIG Move:** A **100% increase** from today's price.
* **VAL.W Move:** An estimated **512% to 575% increase** from today's price.
### **4. Why the Price is "Non-Linear"**
You'll notice that while RIG only doubles, the warrant value **sextuples**. This is because the warrant is currently "Out of the Money" (OTM).
* **The "Gamma" Effect:** As RIG approaches $8.66 (the break-even point where VAL hits the $131.88 strike), the warrants transition from being a "lottery ticket" to being a "tracking instrument."
* **2026 Outlook:** With the merger closing in the second half of 2026, the market will likely bid up the warrants even faster if offshore dayrates continue to climb, as they represent the cheapest way to control a massive block of the new combined company.
**Would you like me to calculate the exact RIG price where the warrants become "In the Money" (the break-even point) so you can set an alert?**
Because of the **February 9, 2026 merger agreement**, these warrants will be assumed by Transocean and will track RIG's price based on the fixed exchange ratio.
### **1. The $12 RIG Calculation**
To find the warrant's value, we first determine what $12 RIG means for the underlying asset it's tied to:
* **Implied Valaris (VAL) Price:**
* **Subtract the Strike Price:** (Intrinsic Value)
### **2. Estimated Market Price of VAL.W**
Since the warrants don't expire until **April 29, 2028**, they will still carry a significant "Time Value" premium on top of that $50.94 intrinsic value.
| RIG Price | Implied VAL Price | VAL.W Intrinsic Value | **Est. VAL.W Market Price** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **$5.98** (Current) | $91.10 | $0.00 | **$11.10** |
| **$9.00** | $137.12 | $5.24 | **$21.50 – $24.00** |
| **$12.00** | **$182.82** | **$50.94** | **$68.00 – $75.00** |
### **3. The Leverage Multiplier**
If you held the warrants at **$11.10** and RIG moved to **$12**:
* **RIG Move:** A **100% increase** from today's price.
* **VAL.W Move:** An estimated **512% to 575% increase** from today's price.
### **4. Why the Price is "Non-Linear"**
You'll notice that while RIG only doubles, the warrant value **sextuples**. This is because the warrant is currently "Out of the Money" (OTM).
* **The "Gamma" Effect:** As RIG approaches $8.66 (the break-even point where VAL hits the $131.88 strike), the warrants transition from being a "lottery ticket" to being a "tracking instrument."
* **2026 Outlook:** With the merger closing in the second half of 2026, the market will likely bid up the warrants even faster if offshore dayrates continue to climb, as they represent the cheapest way to control a massive block of the new combined company.
**Would you like me to calculate the exact RIG price where the warrants become "In the Money" (the break-even point) so you can set an alert?**
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.