cryptoyoda
Short

ValueClick: A Greatly Undervalued Internet Play - going down

BATS:VCLK   None
143 5 1
Background: "ValueClick (VCLK) is an anomaly. It's the rare Internet company trading at low multiples with tremendous growth potential. We regularly use screening tools to check for undervalued companies in the Internet sector. Our search often returns no results due to our strict requirements for a reasonable margin of safety. After the recent sell-off in the market, ValueClick showed up on our radar as an interesting investment opportunity."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1740992-valueclick-a-greatly-undervalued-internet-play

Undervalued or not, large downward gaps in May and August, and a strongly impulsive downward move at the start of October point to an ongoing downtrend.

Short opportunities:
- resistance at upper MLH (solid blue) around $19.70
- resistance at sliding parallel ( SP             ) immediately above that (dotted red)

Breaching the SP             & warning line above could signal end of downtrend & an opportunity to buy for valuation reasons without trying to catch a falling knife. ( Esp             if VCLK exceeds$21.84, negating the final ABCD pattern .)
(Thinking about it, a quick upward flush, & drop back below the SP would be even better.)
Reply
Gapped up through upper MLH - not encouraging. Drew in a new sliding parallel (SP), moved my guess at C up it. Waiting for confirmation of resistance at the SP; grinding with lower highs (?)
Reply
One caveat, rereading the article I noticed this: "About 14% of Valueclick's float is sold short." So a short-covering rally could be explosive. It looks like a break about 21.84 could trigger that.
Reply
A qn for the pitchforkers: the A & C of the pitchfork are probably a bit non-standard (aren't you supposed to use the close before a gap? and the C is not right on the high, which is a couple of bars earlier...) But it seems to track 'path of price' better.

Does this happen a lot?
Reply
Yes, a clear short. I'd place my stop at 20.8 and seek to enter short at the best possible price.
Reply
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