VELVET - Wedge Pop into Compression

Jun 22

VELVET had a strong **wedge pop** off the lows.

Now the market is doing the important part:

It’s digesting the move.

Not dumping.
Not cleanly breaking yet.
Just compressing under supply while the 1H EMAs catch up underneath.
And getting **tight**

That’s where the opportunity starts to form.


🔭 HTF Context

The higher timeframe move came from a clean wedge pop and expansion through the 10/20 structure.

After that kind of move, I’m not looking for random continuation.

I want to see if participants are willing to **accept higher prices** after the first leg.

So far, VELVET is still holding the post-pop base. The EMAs are tightening. Volume has cooled off. Price is sitting near the upper side of the range.

That is constructive Crossback behavior.

But it is not confirmed yet.



🧱 LTF Structure

On the 1H, VELVET is compressing under a descending trendline.

What stands out:

• Lower highs pressing from above
• Support building underneath
• 10/20/50 EMAs tightening below price
• Volume drying up after expansion
• Price continuing to work back toward the top of the base

This is the kind of structure where I want to see **compression → expansion**, not chase inside the range.



♻️ Cycle Position

Current phase:

**Wedge Pop → Crossback attempt**

The wedge pop already happened.

Now the question is simple:

Does this base turn into continuation, or does price reject and rotate back through the range?

That answer comes from acceptance or rejection at the top of compression.


🟢 Continuation Scenario

Continuation improves if VELVET breaks the descending trendline and starts accepting above the recent highs.

What I’d want to see:

• Break above compression
• Strong close near highs
• Volume expansion
• EMAs turning up underneath price
• Pullback holding above the breakout zone

If that happens, this starts to shift into a cleaner **Crossback Breakout** setup.


🔴 Failure Scenario

Failure starts if price rejects the trendline again and loses the 1H EMA cluster.

What weakens the structure:

• Breakout attempt with no participation
• Upper wick rejection back into the range
• Loss of the 10/20/50 structure
• Acceptance below the recent base lows

If that happens, the wedge pop likely needs more repair before continuation can be trusted.


🎯 Execution Mindset

This is not a blind long because it’s coiled.

The trade only improves if price confirms acceptance above compression.

Until then, VELVET is still inside the base and still dealing with overhead rejection.

I’m watching the trendline, EMA cluster, and volume.

Break.
Accept.
Defend.

That’s the process.

**Not a signal. Just how I’m reading structure and participation.**

Jun 27

Trade active

Got a clean entry. Good volume injection, Clean Break, Clean Surf, volume dry up on the pullback, into expansion

Jun 29

Trade closed: target reached

After taking a third off at 5R, total R is 13.25