This coin has seen massive pump following rumor and heavy hype. Vechain has a great new partnership with a company called Fanghuwang. That other company company has 3.3 billion dollars of assets under management; unfortunately reliant on the global consumer debt bubble that has totally swallowed China whole at this point in time. Great partnership? Probably, but I am not at all impressed at this price level. It seems like small time traders are though as the former and clearly visible whale accumulation volume has dried up. As you can see this news is correlated with a massive spike in price as Vechain worked its way above the topside resistance on January 17-January 18, before negating most of those earnings as I am writing this right now.
The buyers here ate totally hyped up, which I like. However, I am not long on VENBTC right now. First off, whales are putting huge sell and buy walls on the Binance market, which have caused the total distortion of a consolidation that can be seen on the chart above.
Another interesting thing is that on January 9 there was a massive spike in price but it was not reciprocal with volume. This means that Reddit money has come into town. This is probably related to news that came out at the time that Vechain founder, Lu Yang, made, "a breakthrough in technological transformation at the live-streaming "China-US Blockchain Broadcasting Group" at Live in Silicon Valley. The chain's benchmarking in the automotive industry." reddit.com/r/Vechain/comments/7nwg85/at_800_on_january_4_2018_the_founder_of_vechain/
Now, don't get me wrong. I have high hopes for Vechain and many other crypto currencies -- that I think are about to experience a sharp return to fair value. However, it is just that; with no emotional considerations for price, my analysis is a mix of fundamental and technical analysis to figure out when former buys will "sell the fact" so to speak. Trust me, I will be looking to buy this coin. Based on a simple technique I have set my strike zone at or below half - but probably closer to a third - of current market valuation for VENBTC.
However, I have left breathing room for myself to be wrong, which is indicated on the chart at the, "most important spot" which combines long term - albeit stretched - support with an acute short term resistance. If VENBTC can breakout above that line with huge volume then I will, "eat my dick on live television." ... I put that in quotes so I'm safe.
I will hypothesize that if VENBTC can stay above the support line by the beginning of February in consolidation, then there could be a move higher. This move relates to the, "most important spot" mark. However, this comes with the, "caveat emptor" which is that we need to see a consistently high volume to counter bears like me. Considering that the reddit page had five thousand views when I was on it(1/3 of Bitcoin's reddit viewers at the time) and that VECHAIN's Reddit is backed up by 30,000 subscribers to the fan club, this necessary increase in buying volume is a fair possibility. However, I remain in doubt -- not in the project itself -- but in the current price valuation of this crypto. I will be buying this later on.
Discliamer: Do not act on this information. This is lunacy and disregard this advice very strongly as the words of a complete madman.
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These are the exact charts that give me the reason to put this post up:
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read my replies on the comments section below
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wow, I got BTFO! Volume did increase to lift this price up, so I was not totally wrong here. However, I still predict that when volume drops after the January 24th Vechain conference, there will be a sharp decline in value. HODL mindset incoming.
Order cancelled
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People started unloading their bags as the announcement was made on the 24th of January. The conference announcement was that Vechain isi now supossed to be called Vechain Thor untill they re-brand and that Vechain's public blockchain will be used to manage digital data on the supply chain for a Norwegian logistics company called DNV GL...
"By combining key blockchain features with embedded sensors and other "Internet of Things" technologies, it is possible to obtain unique insights into a product's history, status and performance. For example, how it has been produced, transported, stored and its current quality. This transparency and insight along the entire supply chain will give companies increased control and improve overall efficiency..."
Some big wig calculated that there might be less loss due to spillage and waste if they track each item. We'll see. This could be a boon, or massive failure and DNV GL is really taking a big chance here.
Any hold ups from my perspective? The thing I don't get is how this will affect DNV GL's bottom line. We'll see I guess. However, it is no time to speculate on the possibility that Vechain's blockchain is a boon for this company. That is a risky and long term bet that I have no interest in being exposed to. However, when rubber meets road and products become cheaper due to this innovation, or nothing happens, I will gain benefit from success of this innovation in my daily life. I will always have the chance of buying in later on down the road (when this coin takes a sh** soon).
That lead me to what I think about this price action.
@MattRiedle, Volume is continuing its trend of lower high lower low. Furthermore, the price here is still associated with a, "buy the rumor" mentality in the market. Lastly, the volume did end up increasing -- literally breaking though the "most important price spot" in two, 4 hour candles before preceding to decline, right in line with the Gann's top side resistance. Then it vaulted higher and above the former resistance Fib level and to the top of the next Fib level.
This post is ment for traders like yourself who have bought, made profit and will most likely choose not to realize that profit, being swept up in greed. This is why this chart says short. What will happen is that this chart will plummet and I will be the guy who accumulates much lower when the HODLers begin to sell of their Vechain after all, having realized a loss instead of profit in order to chase the "next best crypto" again and again.
This is very wise place to sell, take profit and what? Buy lower or see if it breaks through this top side Fib level. This is the very worst time to hold in my opinion. January 24 is 4 days away and this thing will crash when the rumor becomes fact. Take notice of the title of this post: Vechain: Buy the Rumor Sell the Fact. HODL Mindset.
I hope that not many more suckers get BTFO when the news comes and the whales take profit. (I marked them on the chart)
Xplicid
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Are you aware of the news coming up on 24th on a FB live? Is this in your calculations?
SgtOuiOui
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@Xplicid, "I have left breathing room for myself to be wrong, which is indicated on the chart at the, "most important spot" which combines long term - albeit stretched - support with an acute short term resistance. If VENBTC can breakout above that line with huge volume" then we will continue this trend higher. .... so far this thing has broken out of that resistance. However, it is testing a pretty resistant Fib level and gann fan roof at the same time, which is shown on the original on the chart...
It could be the case that Vechain wil break out higher. However, this has not been confirmed in my book yet. Once again, I take the stance that this is a, "buy the rumor" price action. After the fact comes out, so will the price floor. Hey, maybe a shit load of people watch the Facebook live stream and this coin keeps going higher from here due to huge new volume. That might be the case. However, I would not bet on it.
My point of this post is to provide a counter to the extreme hype for this crypto because I do NOT want small investors buying at this price level and thinking this is the next best thing, only to become year long HODL'ers as is the case so often. That is flat out sad and I hope to be a bearish voice out of concern for the little guy. This is the reason I named this post, "Vechain: Buy the Rumor Sell the Fact. HODL Mindset."