Can't help but feel excited for VET 's price action in the near future. Maybe I've been hitting the Hopium too hard! And while there's a huge difference in the standard vs. long targets, there is consensus. That is, it's going higher. The wave 5 target for the standard chart doesn't even get this back to the VEN All Time High. Meanwhile the log puts it at somewhere between $2 and $4 depending how deep wave 4 retraces! Exciting times ahead.
Key points
Retested 'Cup & Handle' breakout
Testing VET All Time High (ATH)
250% away from VEN ATH (100:1 swap equivalent price)
Wave 3 target is $0.71
Wave 4 targets are between: - $0.249 (0.236 retracement of wave 3) - $0.132 (0.382 retracement of wave 3)
Wave 5 targets are: - $2.02 (1:1 length of wave 1 projected from wave 4 (0.382 fib) this is in confluence with the algo target -0.236 of wave 3) - $3.87 (1:1 length of wave 1 projected from wave 4 (0.236 fib))
For a deeper analysis and Standard targets for VET see the linked chart below.
Never Trust. Verify. D.Y.O.R. Not Financial Advice, Just an Observation. Always remember: Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds. Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key. Capital preservation above all else.
Created an account just to comment. Wow lol, I'm blown away by the accuracy. It's 4/13 and according to that line, the price should be about 0.16cents; well we're currently at .15 cents. Could you explain what you mean by "waves" and how you come up with these cycles?
Also, in terms of taking profits in crypto (I know, you can't give financial advice ;), what do you think is best for newcomers and inexperienced traders?
Taking profits along the way (e.g 10% at .20 cents, 10% at .30 cents, 10% at .40 cents, etc.)
or
Buying and holding until deeper into the cycle (ex. in wave 3 julyish~ and wave 5 beginning of 2022)
There's also the notion of swing trading, buying at short-term dips and selling at local tops and just repeating until peak of bull cycle.
I know it's very speculative. My original plan was to take profits as it goes up, but seeing your chart and knowing VET, I'm more inclined to hold for just a little bit longer (towards wave 3) since I don't want to pull out too early (that's what she said ;). LOL. Your wisdom is greatly appreciated. Thank you!
:)
TribeWriter666
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@sxekev, Sorry for the slow response. Firstly I want to say thank you for going to the effort of signing up just to say this, I want you to know it means a lot to me. So thank you!
Ever heard the expression "Two steps forward one step back"? Well its the same for the market; it moves in waves; never just in a single direction. These waves you see on the chart above are called Elliott waves. If you would like to know more about them and how i find these targets search for 'trade devils' on youtube. they have heaps of free content and also have a course you can do and the first part of the course is free! The best part about it is there is a community of traders on discord that can help you learn. And no i am not affiliated with them! But that is where I learnt the basics.
As for taking profits that is a very difficult question and really depends on your personal circumstances. In the first option you're talking about laddering out and I agree that can be a good strategy for someone who is starting out especially if they have made some good profits. Buy that leads me to a couple of questions; take profits into what? into fiat? Bitcoin? what is your time horizon? Months? Years? and have you thought about how 'taking profit' will be treated in regards to tax? The answers to these questions might alter your strategy. Some believe this will be a super cycle, some believe fiat currencies are collapsing but truth is; no one knows what will happen. I have a feeling this is going to be another bubble that will pop and then we will get another cycle later. but I certainty could be wrong. With that in mind I'm trading by feel and taking an approach similar to your second option. That will be hard for someone to do if they haven't been through a full cycle, so that influences how I plan to trade it. The hard question is how do you know when to sell? Even some pros can have trouble with this. And the last option, swing trading, is guaranteed to get you rekt if your fairly new and still trying to work things out. Truth is 95% of people lose money doing this. It's much better to find high conviction investments (the blue chips), ladder into positions when everyone else is too scared to buy and then HODL. I'm no pro but I'm getting there and I've found that this strategy really does work best for me and my style. This type of trade make up 80% of my portfolio as long term plays (hold longer than 1 year). And I trade, play and speculate with the rest. My strategy involves hedging rather than taking profits (where possible) and playing the alts/btc cycles during the different waves (see my ETH:BTC charts). I do analysis and use and element of time/ price velocity to workout when I will take profit and is something that would be very difficult for me to share since it happens in real time and can easily overshoot these targets. something I have noticed is that a lot of these coins have been hitting the 2.618 target instead of the 1.618 for the wave 3...
sxekev
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@TribeWriter666, No worries. I greatly appreciate you taking the time out to help me gain clarity by asking certain questions and having a genuine conversation. Have you considered building a following/service outside of tradingview? Like a YT channel or trading group? I think you will do great ;)
And to answer your questions, if you care of course, I pretty much dumped my savings into crypto this year so that I can potentially multiply my investments to have my own studio/location to build out my physical business (bodywork/health & wellness services). The goal is to make enough this bull run to build out the foundation of my vision. So for me, the time horizon is pretty short. Knowing this, I'm sure there are many others who are here this bull run to make some money... so your feeling of it being another bubble may just be right ;) However, I do think that with each successive crypto cycle, the bubble gets smaller as mainstream adoption does seem like it's picking up. And I do plan on allocating a portion of my crypto for the long haul because I believe in the mission and vision of crypto.
To summarize, I'll likely be holding my investments deeper into this bull run and cashing out the majority my altcoins specifically into fiat *hopefully* before it all ends. I understand the tax implications associated with this, but that's the most practical option for me at least to reinvest my gainz, since it doesn't seem like our fiat system will be collapsing anytime soon.
Anyhow, thank you again for your help. I would love to stay connected. And I do have a few more personal questions to ask you. When you say the majority of your portfolio are long-term plays, are you talking about holding past this bull and bear run into the next crypto cycles? Meaning 3-5+ timeline? Are these just large-cap cryptos or alts as well? B/c I thought it wasn't a good idea to be holding onto alts through bear markets, unless you have serious conviction that it will be a big player in the future (like VET ;). Anyhow, thank you again for your help. I hope you will be considering doing some trading/investment group services in the future. I would love to join and be your first fan. Let's stay in touch :D
Much love ♥
TribeWriter666
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@sxekev, Funny you mention that, I've been playing around with the idea of a trading group or YouTube channel for some time now... It's been difficult to keep on top of analyzing, posting, replying and trading but something like this may be coming soon, I'll keep you posted. :)
I like the sound of your plan, Bodywork/ health and wellness services; care to elaborate? I try my best in this area, but I realize I could do better with some coaching.
Do you mind me asking how long you have been trading? You seem very on point so someone who is just starting out?
I'm not sure where you're from but in Australia if you hold longer than 1 year there's a 50% tax discount. So that has influenced my strategy and you're right holding through the bear cycle can be a bad move (I learned that the hard way last cycle!). I sold many of my investments at a loss during the last bear cycle and started re-accumulating both BTC and blue chip alts during the covid lows. So when I say long term I just mean longer than 1 year, however, I won't be selling most of my blue chips this time because I've discovered there are other ways to take profit without triggering gains. Such as; taking loans against the assets like what alchemix aims to offer; or hedging against the trades (taking short positions to offset the losses and remain stable in fiat value). While hedging is good, I want to take it one step further and flip net short to profit as the market contracts with my ultimate goal being to accumulate as much BTC as possible. But we will have to wait and see how that plays out!
Sure I'd like that, feel free to slide into my DM's
Much love ♥ right back at cha