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shri30389
Nov 17, 2022 12:03 AM

Everyone Believes What They Want to Believe Short

Vanguard FTSE All World Ex US ETFArca

Description

Realty != Belief

The secret to this market is to lower your expectation continually.
Bulls do not realize they are sitting in the largest bull trap ever setup.
Macro bottom still pending... it's more of the same: drop, consolidate, drop.

A wise Bera once said:
Resistance is infinite and unbounded.
When a level is broken, there will always be more resistance higher up.
Support is not though, support is capped at 0.

The Fed's view:
federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/what-does-the-beveridge-curve-tell-us-about-the-likelihood-of-a-soft-landing-20220729.html
What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing?
"It would be unprecedented for job vacancies (openings) to decline by a large amount without the economy falling into recession. We are, in effect, saying that something unprecedented can occur."


Lagging Crash

Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008.
The broader stock market did not begin its crash until a week later.
Everyone initially thought Lehman wasn't a systemic risk.
You say crypto crash can not crash stocks with a LAG?
The doom loop is accelerating.
Few understand this.

Comment

Fed's Bullard cites policy rules, suggesting rates of between 5% and 7%.

Anyone hoping for a pivot or even a pause in rate hikes will be disappointed.

Comment

In reference to the lagging crash, someone also brought up these good facts:

Enron went from investment grade to bankruptcy in 4 days.
Lehman announced earnings Sept 08 & was bankrupt in 4 days.
FTX/SBF went from hero to zero in 4 days.
I know many think the same could happen to USD.
How many realize it could also happen to EUR, JPY, GBP, HKD, CNY, etc?

Comment

Load de "Black Swan Event"... 3-6 weeks.
Comments
tantamount
That's some Big DOOM predictions, sir. Good luck with the trades. Gave it a like.
Perfect_Money
Absolutely 100% The Fed is clear it's not over so why pretend. Good analysis.
Tradersweekly
That aligns with what we have been saying for some time. Thanks for sharing.
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