Shares of VFS VinFast experienced a significant surge as they made their debut on the Nasdaq stock exchange following their merger with the special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) known as Black Spade. Given that a substantial 99% of the company is under the control of VinFast's founder, Pham Nhat Vuong, the limited availability of the stock renders it susceptible to increased fluctuations in its value. This situation draws a parallel with other EV SPAC deals, such as Lucid, which served as the foundation for Black Spade's initial valuation of VinFast at $23 billion. Subsequently, Lucid's shares have witnessed a decline post-listing, now being valued at less than $15 billion, representing a nearly 40% reduction compared to its $24 billion SPAC valuation in 2021.
VinFast's pursuit of additional capital poses a potential challenge to its lofty valuation. CFO David Mansfield revealed that the company is engaged in discussions with various investors, including sovereign wealth funds, with the intention of securing additional funding within the next 18 months.
In May, Founder Vuong had expressed the possibility of VinFast selling 50,000 EVs in the current year. As of the first seven months, the company has successfully sold over 16,000 units, inclusive of sales within Vietnam.
Notably, this figure encompasses only 137 units of its VF8 model sold in the United States, which is currently the sole model available in that market. According to consultancy firm AlixPartners, it is estimated that EV manufacturers need to achieve annual sales of 400,000 vehicles to reach a breakeven point, even in China where most are grappling with financial losses amidst a fierce price competition for market share.
Comparatively, VinFast's EVs are relatively expensive when contrasted with Tesla's offerings. Specifically, the Tesla Model Y is approximately $7,000 more affordable than VinFast's VF8 after accounting for federal subsidies.
Considering the fundamentals, my Price Target for VFS VinFast is $0.40, for a Market Capitalization of around $1 Billion.