VIAC (ViacomCBS, Inc.) appears to have a repeating pattern: Multiple times upon reaching it's all time high, it has fallen back below the 61.8% fibonacci (Golden Pocket) level on the rising fibonacci channel. Even more strange, it has done so within 212 days twice already.
A potential long-term short opportunity presents itself from the March/April 2021 time frame forward.
I currently have no position in VIAC, so this is just my unbiased opinion based on past performance.
VIAC is trading at 22.7X average weighted earnings.
Yes, streaming revenue will likely expand and so will the subscriber base as well as the company's corresponding earnings. Perhaps the company's EPS will indeed outperform the expectations, but the historical trends and analyst accuracy don't exactly speak in favor of those expectations. I see no reason to change my price target from a 45/share, which means that ViacomCBS currently represents an overvaluation of around 50%. Analysts' targets are somewhat amusing. ViacomCBS is now significantly overvalued. On top of all this, BMO says ViacomCBS stock has just plain "run too far" and climbed too high -- and whatever you think about the analysts' other objections, it's hard to argue with this one. Up nearly 700% over the last 12 months, at a recent valuation of $60 billion, ViacomCBS stock costs 25 times trailing earnings and 30 times trailing free cash flow. Factor in net debt on the company's balance sheet, and those numbers rise to nearly 33 times earnings and 40 times FCF.
But forget analyst accuracy - look at where the company trades instead.
VIAC is expected to average 3-4 year EPS growth of 0.06% - essentially zero.
Yes, streaming revenue will likely expand and so will the subscriber base as well as the company's corresponding earnings. Perhaps the company's EPS will indeed outperform the expectations, but the historical trends and analyst accuracy don't exactly speak in favor of those expectations. I see no reason to change my price target from a 45/share, which means that ViacomCBS currently represents an overvaluation of around 50%. Analysts' targets are somewhat amusing. ViacomCBS is now significantly overvalued. On top of all this, BMO says ViacomCBS stock has just plain "run too far" and climbed too high -- and whatever you think about the analysts' other objections, it's hard to argue with this one. Up nearly 700% over the last 12 months, at a recent valuation of $60 billion, ViacomCBS stock costs 25 times trailing earnings and 30 times trailing free cash flow. Factor in net debt on the company's balance sheet, and those numbers rise to nearly 33 times earnings and 40 times FCF.
But forget analyst accuracy - look at where the company trades instead.
VIAC is expected to average 3-4 year EPS growth of 0.06% - essentially zero.