ALMA board (~0.6832)
15m through 1D: SHORT on the tile. 4H: Cur Short 7 vs Avg Short ~3.4 — diff ~3.6 bars (~2.1× average short run, above default 1.0 min diff unless inputs are tightened). 3D LONG with Cur Long 5; 1W LONG with Cur Long 1 — slow grid long while intraday through daily stay short. Same “young weekly long + stretched 4H short” fork as other ALMA long notes.
EMA / session grid
6/6 Below on the strip. 1H Cur Short 24 vs Avg Short ~8.5 — heavy micro short crowding. 3D Cur Short 12 vs Avg ~14.2; 1W Cur Short 23 vs Avg ~51 — weekly series still long in bars but price sits far under the slow EMA. 1W Dev% ~50 below — macro rubber-band skew; 1D Dev% ~0 — local reset to the daily mean in the same export. 4H Cur Short 3 vs snapshot ALMA 4H S=7: ALMA tile is the strategy clock for phase length.
SMC — current and recent
4H (~0.6851, 19.04 04:00): post-wick context after the vertical pop — bid clusters ~0.68–0.72 vs overhead ~0.79–0.80 supply; CHoCH / trend-down language on the strip around ~0.7055 in the capture set, then absorption back into the range.
1D (~0.7028, 18.04): raid / enter bull cluster at the print — liquidity ping-pong; air pocket ~0.795–0.826 and deeper ladder higher; invalidation if ~0.56–0.64 volume-anchor floor fails on sustained acceptance.
1W (~0.6429, 06.04): macro consolidation after historical extremes — trade is tactical long inside HTF range until weekly structure upgrades.
Trend — 1D (squeeze)
Forecast: apex compression between descending resistance (~0.72–0.75 pocket) and ascending fan support (~0.60–0.63) — breakout acceptance above the lower red rail opens path toward ~0.91 horizontal; lose the fan and the squeeze thesis flips to liquidity hunt lower.
Trend — 1W (macro)
Anomaly: multi-quarter triangle vertex — volatility has nowhere to hide. Base case while macro green support holds: mean-reversion toward ~0.75–0.91 and outer rails; sustained weekly failure through ~0.56–0.60 cluster re-opens deeper PL ladder.
Derivatives — skew
Accounts skew short (~56% short vs ~44% long; long/short ratio ~0.79) while leviathan net reads heavily long — retail fade vs size bid. CVD negative with funding near flat — absorption read, not a clean impulse; forecast: squeeze needs aggressive buy delta; else range churn continues.
Social — hype reset
Dominance and post/interaction flow collapsed from the March spike while sentiment stays ~86% — tourists left, bulls stayed; Galaxy mid-40s — social overheat cleared, not the same as price safety.
On-chain (sparse panes)
Addresses off the Q1 spike; USD volume still prints pulses on a quiet base — small float, chunky prints; many TVL/whale panes N/A — do not invent fundamentals.
Backtest honesty (ALMA Avg on attached VIRTUAL panel, Nov 2024 – Apr 2026)
About +56% total P&L with profit factor ~1.11 on 409 trades — thin edge, high churn. Win rate ~58% but max equity drawdown ~60% — path risk dominates. Avg win ~14.4% vs avg loss ~−8.2% — winners carry expectancy; dollar ratio avg win/avg loss ~0.81 — still frequency-dependent. Average run-up phase ~31d vs drawdown ~43d — underwater longer than upside bursts. Max intrabar run-up ~168% vs max intrabar drawdown ~149% of initial in the report — variance monster; return of max drawdown ~0.38 — recovery efficiency is mediocre.
Bull case
4H ALMA short run ~2.1× average; 1H EMA short crowding; 3D ALMA long with L=5; post-blow-off reset into ~0.68 bid + SMC absorption language; retail-short / whale-long skew.
Bear case
Weekly Dev ~50% Below — macro stretch can cap rips into overhead ~0.79–0.80; PF ~1.1 and DD ~60% — wrong regime eats pyramids; one bad streak can mirror the Aug–Feb equity sink in the curve.
15m through 1D: SHORT on the tile. 4H: Cur Short 7 vs Avg Short ~3.4 — diff ~3.6 bars (~2.1× average short run, above default 1.0 min diff unless inputs are tightened). 3D LONG with Cur Long 5; 1W LONG with Cur Long 1 — slow grid long while intraday through daily stay short. Same “young weekly long + stretched 4H short” fork as other ALMA long notes.
EMA / session grid
6/6 Below on the strip. 1H Cur Short 24 vs Avg Short ~8.5 — heavy micro short crowding. 3D Cur Short 12 vs Avg ~14.2; 1W Cur Short 23 vs Avg ~51 — weekly series still long in bars but price sits far under the slow EMA. 1W Dev% ~50 below — macro rubber-band skew; 1D Dev% ~0 — local reset to the daily mean in the same export. 4H Cur Short 3 vs snapshot ALMA 4H S=7: ALMA tile is the strategy clock for phase length.
SMC — current and recent
4H (~0.6851, 19.04 04:00): post-wick context after the vertical pop — bid clusters ~0.68–0.72 vs overhead ~0.79–0.80 supply; CHoCH / trend-down language on the strip around ~0.7055 in the capture set, then absorption back into the range.
1D (~0.7028, 18.04): raid / enter bull cluster at the print — liquidity ping-pong; air pocket ~0.795–0.826 and deeper ladder higher; invalidation if ~0.56–0.64 volume-anchor floor fails on sustained acceptance.
1W (~0.6429, 06.04): macro consolidation after historical extremes — trade is tactical long inside HTF range until weekly structure upgrades.
Trend — 1D (squeeze)
Forecast: apex compression between descending resistance (~0.72–0.75 pocket) and ascending fan support (~0.60–0.63) — breakout acceptance above the lower red rail opens path toward ~0.91 horizontal; lose the fan and the squeeze thesis flips to liquidity hunt lower.
Trend — 1W (macro)
Anomaly: multi-quarter triangle vertex — volatility has nowhere to hide. Base case while macro green support holds: mean-reversion toward ~0.75–0.91 and outer rails; sustained weekly failure through ~0.56–0.60 cluster re-opens deeper PL ladder.
Derivatives — skew
Accounts skew short (~56% short vs ~44% long; long/short ratio ~0.79) while leviathan net reads heavily long — retail fade vs size bid. CVD negative with funding near flat — absorption read, not a clean impulse; forecast: squeeze needs aggressive buy delta; else range churn continues.
Social — hype reset
Dominance and post/interaction flow collapsed from the March spike while sentiment stays ~86% — tourists left, bulls stayed; Galaxy mid-40s — social overheat cleared, not the same as price safety.
On-chain (sparse panes)
Addresses off the Q1 spike; USD volume still prints pulses on a quiet base — small float, chunky prints; many TVL/whale panes N/A — do not invent fundamentals.
Backtest honesty (ALMA Avg on attached VIRTUAL panel, Nov 2024 – Apr 2026)
About +56% total P&L with profit factor ~1.11 on 409 trades — thin edge, high churn. Win rate ~58% but max equity drawdown ~60% — path risk dominates. Avg win ~14.4% vs avg loss ~−8.2% — winners carry expectancy; dollar ratio avg win/avg loss ~0.81 — still frequency-dependent. Average run-up phase ~31d vs drawdown ~43d — underwater longer than upside bursts. Max intrabar run-up ~168% vs max intrabar drawdown ~149% of initial in the report — variance monster; return of max drawdown ~0.38 — recovery efficiency is mediocre.
Bull case
4H ALMA short run ~2.1× average; 1H EMA short crowding; 3D ALMA long with L=5; post-blow-off reset into ~0.68 bid + SMC absorption language; retail-short / whale-long skew.
Bear case
Weekly Dev ~50% Below — macro stretch can cap rips into overhead ~0.79–0.80; PF ~1.1 and DD ~60% — wrong regime eats pyramids; one bad streak can mirror the Aug–Feb equity sink in the curve.
Trade closed: target reached
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.