VIRTUAL LONG — ALMA Averaging | Score 20.1 | ALMA Add Active
ALMA Long Add fired on the 4H candle. Entry zone ~$0.632–$0.640.
Trump's Iran speech overnight. VIRTUAL went from ~$0.74 to sub-$0.635 — a sharp flush into the MS Downsweep at $0.6326 (April 2, 12:00). The ALMA averaging strategy added. Score is moderate. The interesting part is elsewhere.
---
Score breakdown (20.1 total):
ALMA Overheat: 7.2 — the main driver.
- 4H: Cur S=7, Avg S=5.0 → 1.4× overheat on the strategy timeframe. Entry condition met: diff=2 ≥ 1.
The entry condition is confirmed on the strategy TF (4H).
Deviation: 5.1 — 1D: 2.5, 3D: 2.5.
Both 1D and 3D EMAs are above current price, each contributing equally to the deviation score. Per MTF EMA table — see chart.
1st Bar Close: 2.5 — 1H confirmed below EMA (entry bar support).
Series: −0.5 — mixed. 1D and 4H have residual LONG series components. The setup is not textbook clean on the series dimension.
---
The microstructure case — this is the interesting part:
Funding Rate: −0.075%
Negative funding means shorts are paying longs. At this price level. VIRTUAL is at $0.63, down 80%+ from its highs, and the funding is still negative. That means the crowd is actively maintaining short exposure on the way down — which is exactly the setup that precedes sharp short squeezes.
Long/Short Ratio Accounts: 0.46
68.89% of accounts are short. 31.5% long. The crowd is unanimously positioned for more downside.
Summary: crowd is short, paying for it. This is a setup where shorts are overstaying their welcome.
---
SMC Class C: 0.8 — weak SMC confirmation.
SMC / FVG (4H):
Most recent events (April 2):
- MS Downsweep: $0.6326 (12:00) — structure swept the recent lows. Classic liquidation event.
- FVG Enter Bull: $0.6326, $0.6295, $0.6359 — multiple fresh bull FVGs established at current lows
- OB Enter Normal Bear: $0.6359 — bears defending just above
SMC (1D):
- MS Downsweep: $0.6451 (March 29) — prior 1D sweep
- FVG New Bear: $0.6558 (March 28) — active bearish FVG overhead
- FVG Bull: $0.6424 (March 30), $0.6451 (March 29) — support cluster
SMC (1W):
- MS Trend Up established at $1.4619 (Nov 25, 2024) — weekly bull trend technically intact from that anchor
- MS Downsweep: $0.7883 (Oct 6, 2025) — structural sweep happened at the highs
- Current price at $0.63 sits on the $0.6331 weekly labeled support level
- Falling Wedge forming on the weekly chart — pattern targets upper channel at ~$0.88–$0.91
---
Strategy mechanics (ALMA Avg, Long Only, 4H):
Entry condition: each 4H bar where ALMA signal = SHORT and Cur S − Avg S ≥ 1. Currently: Cur S=7, Avg S=5.0 → diff=2. Condition met.
Position sizing: 25% equity per bar. Pyramiding enabled.
Exit condition: ALMA flips to LONG and LONG series overheats (Cur L / Avg L ≥ threshold on 4H).
Hard stop: 10% from average entry. Entry ~$0.635: Hard SL ≈ $0.572.
Backtest (Nov 1, 2024 – Apr 2, 2026):
- WR: 57.92% (234/404 trades)
- Profit Factor: 1.108. This strategy barely wins on VIRTUAL.
- Avg profit: +14.47%, Avg loss: −8.30%
Transparent disclaimer: PF 1.108 means this strategy on VIRTUAL is borderline. The edge comes from infrequent large wins (+12%, +7%) against more frequent moderate losses. The current setup has a weaker score than the strategy's best entries (which reached 80–90+ Long Score).
Trump's Iran speech overnight. VIRTUAL went from ~$0.74 to sub-$0.635 — a sharp flush into the MS Downsweep at $0.6326 (April 2, 12:00). The ALMA averaging strategy added. Score is moderate. The interesting part is elsewhere.
---
Score breakdown (20.1 total):
ALMA Overheat: 7.2 — the main driver.
- 4H: Cur S=7, Avg S=5.0 → 1.4× overheat on the strategy timeframe. Entry condition met: diff=2 ≥ 1.
The entry condition is confirmed on the strategy TF (4H).
Deviation: 5.1 — 1D: 2.5, 3D: 2.5.
Both 1D and 3D EMAs are above current price, each contributing equally to the deviation score. Per MTF EMA table — see chart.
1st Bar Close: 2.5 — 1H confirmed below EMA (entry bar support).
Series: −0.5 — mixed. 1D and 4H have residual LONG series components. The setup is not textbook clean on the series dimension.
---
The microstructure case — this is the interesting part:
Funding Rate: −0.075%
Negative funding means shorts are paying longs. At this price level. VIRTUAL is at $0.63, down 80%+ from its highs, and the funding is still negative. That means the crowd is actively maintaining short exposure on the way down — which is exactly the setup that precedes sharp short squeezes.
Long/Short Ratio Accounts: 0.46
68.89% of accounts are short. 31.5% long. The crowd is unanimously positioned for more downside.
Summary: crowd is short, paying for it. This is a setup where shorts are overstaying their welcome.
---
SMC Class C: 0.8 — weak SMC confirmation.
SMC / FVG (4H):
Most recent events (April 2):
- MS Downsweep: $0.6326 (12:00) — structure swept the recent lows. Classic liquidation event.
- FVG Enter Bull: $0.6326, $0.6295, $0.6359 — multiple fresh bull FVGs established at current lows
- OB Enter Normal Bear: $0.6359 — bears defending just above
SMC (1D):
- MS Downsweep: $0.6451 (March 29) — prior 1D sweep
- FVG New Bear: $0.6558 (March 28) — active bearish FVG overhead
- FVG Bull: $0.6424 (March 30), $0.6451 (March 29) — support cluster
SMC (1W):
- MS Trend Up established at $1.4619 (Nov 25, 2024) — weekly bull trend technically intact from that anchor
- MS Downsweep: $0.7883 (Oct 6, 2025) — structural sweep happened at the highs
- Current price at $0.63 sits on the $0.6331 weekly labeled support level
- Falling Wedge forming on the weekly chart — pattern targets upper channel at ~$0.88–$0.91
---
Strategy mechanics (ALMA Avg, Long Only, 4H):
Entry condition: each 4H bar where ALMA signal = SHORT and Cur S − Avg S ≥ 1. Currently: Cur S=7, Avg S=5.0 → diff=2. Condition met.
Position sizing: 25% equity per bar. Pyramiding enabled.
Exit condition: ALMA flips to LONG and LONG series overheats (Cur L / Avg L ≥ threshold on 4H).
Hard stop: 10% from average entry. Entry ~$0.635: Hard SL ≈ $0.572.
Backtest (Nov 1, 2024 – Apr 2, 2026):
- WR: 57.92% (234/404 trades)
- Profit Factor: 1.108. This strategy barely wins on VIRTUAL.
- Avg profit: +14.47%, Avg loss: −8.30%
Transparent disclaimer: PF 1.108 means this strategy on VIRTUAL is borderline. The edge comes from infrequent large wins (+12%, +7%) against more frequent moderate losses. The current setup has a weaker score than the strategy's best entries (which reached 80–90+ Long Score).
Trade active
Trade closed: target reached
Note
The April 2 ALMA Long Add cycle at $0.6326 (Apr 02, 20:00 — Strategy Tester list of trades; supersedes the Apr 3 note that used 07:00) is fully closed. Two components exited on different bars under ALMA Long Exit (rule-based: ALMA phase LONG with long series stretched vs average on the strategy TF — same mechanics as in the Apr 2 draft).Trade #408 (smaller leg):
- Exit: Apr 06, 20:00 @ $0.6519
- Net P&L: +2.85% (+132 USDT on ~4.64K USDT notional)
- MAE: −4.58% | MFE: +4.89%
Trade #409 (main leg):
- Exit: Apr 08, 16:00 @ $0.6804
- Net P&L: +7.34% (+2,442 USDT on ~33.2K USDT notional)
- MAE: −4.58% | MFE: +9.90%
Shared entry: Apr 02, 20:00 @ $0.6326 — ALMA Long Add.
Tape: price pushed into the ~$0.70 handle (4H wick) before the final exit — the strategy exited on signal, not on a discretionary TP. Intra-trade drawdown reached about −4.6% MAE on both legs before resolution.
NFA. Outcome log only; not a new entry call.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.