I decided to look at the markets from a fear and greed factor, fear mostly. Fear equals volatility, or the VIX. So if we can agree for argument purposes that the mirror image of the VIX is the inverse SPX500, then we observe the 2088 spike in the VIX will be 7 years old (2555 days) on AUGUST 24, 2015. Does 7 years make a bull market? I still feel May 18th was the market top. Forming a rounded top, to implode this fall, and I wont speculate why or the factors that cause it, history will explain it in detail. You might say, you day trade so who cares about these time frames, but you have to factor them in, like driving car, don't just watch the car ahead of you, watch three cars ahead to avoid an accident. And, you might say that's foolish, but how many times have you trusted the charts and not the news, and profited (that's rhetorical), only to find out it wasn't the most dominant headline, but the ones that came out later that caused pivot points or corrections. Escape velocity will be to escape the pink box we have been for 1008 days. Always just IMO. Trade safely.
Comments
claydoctor
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And, if you look at the previous spikes and their magnitudes, the base ahead of the 2008 spike was only half of the existing base, and the two spikes after 2008 were short base durations. So If those ratios play out, this next spike could be two times that of 2008. Just saying, that is what the base ratios are saying.
I appreciate any and all constructive comments.
IvanLabrie
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I think that will be the case. Twice as sharp.
claydoctor
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Apple down below 200 day ma may be the start.
claydoctor
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Also, I can see longer time frame, much longer than previous spike cycles and that can also be looked at, at one heck of a base formed for the next spike above the range it has been in. The longer the base the more confidence in the break out.
IvanLabrie
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Seriously doubt it can continue much longer.
Optimism is ridiculous in general, the buy the dip mantra will stop working soon.
IvanLabrie
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Time duration of market swings will not be static I think, at least not based on Elliott Wave analysis.
claydoctor
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Agree, and this bull can run even 3 more years before it gets rediculous, however, I think I see what everyone sees, and that nervous feeling tends to influence trades, even to the point that it can begin a trend. And if we are trending down from here, it only adds logs to that fire when you start thinking this bull run's time should be up. Nervousness can turn into fear. And fear equals the VIX.
I appreciate any and all constructive comments.