SwissView
Short

Lessons from the past: Highest gains following sell offs

TVC:VIX   Volatility S&P 500 Index
DJIA: Largest daily percentage gains following just few days after record sell offs

1987 Crash
Crash: 19.10.1987, - 22,61 %
Rallye: 21.10.1987, +10,15%

Subprime:
Crash: 09.10.2008, - 7,33%
Rallye: 13.10.2008, + 11,08%

Crash: 15.10.2008, - 7,87
Rallye: 28.10.2008, + 10,88%

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average

Until now former stockmarket crashes matching at least one of each of this criteria:

1. Deep economic crisis / Rezession
2. High currency / FX volatility
3. Sharp rise or fall of Gold             prices
4. Geopolitical Crisis
5. Sharp rise or fall of comodity prices
6. Massively higher interst rates (1987: 10%)

Right now not a single one of this criteria is machted in yesterdays and todays             sell off.



FX: Quite



If ever there might be any crisis in USA than the Dollar would loose dramatically. The Dollar is up on the record sell off day of the Dow.

Cls.: What ever might had cause this flashcrash is not based on fundamentals. Anyway: Stockmarket History is telling us that just days after the largest drop one of the largest daily gains will occur. Be prepared.

Trade active: Compared to past years todays spike was the 3rd highest in VIX history:

Trade active: Handelsblatt.com is the largest financial newspaper and following this story based on the research here published on Tradingview.com one to one. This story is published on the global version last night.

https://global.handelsblatt.com/finance/us-hedge-fund-bets-german-blue-chips-884306
Trade active: Bridgewater: Total Volume short Europe now at least 18,57 bn.

6,3 Mrd. Euro: Germany
3,0 Mrd. Euro: Italien
1,2 Mrd. Euro: IBEX35 Werte
1,4 Mrd. Euro: AEX: ING/ASML/Philips/Unilever
1,1 Mrd. Euro: TOTAL SA
0,7 Mrd. Euro: Sanofi
0,6 Mrd. Euro: BNP
0,3 Mrd. Euro: Airbus
0,5 Mrd. Euro: AXA
------------------
15,1 Mrd. Euro or 18.57 Bn Dollar.

Source NL shorts: https://www.iex.nl/Column/275064/Er-zit-een-dikke-shorter-in-de-AEX.aspx,3
Source IBEX 35 shorts: https://www.elconfidencial.com/mercados/2018-02-06/ray-dalio-1200millones-bajistas-santander-bbva-ibex_1517520/
Source: Italien https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-01/bridgewater-triples-wagers-against-italian-firms-to-3-billion
Source quadruples shorts: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-09/ray-dalio-bridgewater-quadruples-shorts-on-european-union-stocks
Source other shorts, Airbus: https://twitter.com/srussolillo/status/961876996618792966
Trade active: BRIDGEWATER‘s net short position is 22 bn US Dollar not 20 as calculated: https://mobil.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Hedgefonds-setzt-Milliarden-auf-Kursrutsch-article20286918.html
Trade active: Just to compare: US-Investors sold assets for 41 Bn USD in a full month. BRIDGEWATER sold stocks for at least 22 Bn USD just within a few days only. Same time Europe’s Stockmarket is much smaller than the US Stockmarket.

„Investors staged a near-record exodus from US stocks in February

Funds that focus on U.S. stocks saw investors withdraw $41.1 billion in February, according to market data firm TrimTabs.
The total was the third-largest ever and came during a month when the Dow industrials lost about 4 %“ https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/06/investors-staged-a-near-record-exodus-from-us-stocks-in-february.html
Trade active: High-performance U.S. tech stocks drive Nasdaq to record high
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/highperformance-us-tech-stocks-drive-nasdaq-to-record-high-1334870
Trade active: up dates:

please click on the chart to load facts & figures

Surely the more important thing is that this break is a huge break of a multi year downward trend in the base. This break may well rebase VIX sloping upwards for next 5 years+
Reply
You are shorting the vix?
Reply
SwissView Jupiter1
@Jupiter1, i follow the VIX to get an idea about next market moves. I guess the VIX will go down medium term but I would not short this Index using real money. There is no reason to take high risks like this for reatail traders. Pros can short the VIX to hedge shortpositions. This would be a risk free hedge. No matter how high the VIX might go it will come down back where we are in days or at least 1-2 weeks. The VIX yesterday @ 52 was on the 3rd. highest level ever.
Reply
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out