More applicable now than ever !
I've looked at the as well as VIX which reflect extreme greed and a broken market. This type of euphoria that "stocks can never go down" is only a belief of dumb money and a strong indication of a top.
First off, Ideas like the one posted have been frequent visitors here for the last 6 months and even though they seem reasonable, we are not living in reasonable times. Many who have expected the market to collapse, have lost a lot of money.
The fed is non stop pumping money into the markets and that has no end in sight as of right now. Along with that, there has already been a massive cash injection into the economy and it has padded a ton of pockets. It's not too far fetched of an idea to be thinking that stocks will continue to rise. It would DEFINITELY be ridiculous, but would it be any more ridiculous than the massive amount of money that is being created out of thin air? I think not.
We have never seen anything like this in history and that brings me to believe we may just grow a bubble larger than anyone has ever seen in history.
But, quite a few people are starting to think along the lines of what you’ve said. If that’s the prevailing sentiment, then that tells me the top is here. Market will fall exactly when you least expect it.
Secondly, the fed has tapered their asset purchases since June high. They’re not trying to support the markets, as big funds and smart money, billionaires, etc have exited.
Thanks for the comment !
But I am conflicted about the timing - maybe a quick drop in two weeks and then test the highs around Christmas followed by major event in Jan. Without a black swan event, we wouldn't go below 3200 (still 10% drop from here on SPX).