Last time we looked at the Volatility Index (VIX) on February 06 (see chart below), we caught its exact price action up until the current high:
It didn't affect the stock market though up until last week but the price is already approaching peak values. The long-term pattern has been a Channel Down since the September 28 2022 High and every Lower High since has been around the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, completing at least a +80.56% rise from the Lower Low.
This zone currently falls between 20.05 (Fib 0.786) and 21.30 (+80.56%). That is the level we expect for VIX to peak, form a Lower High on the long-term Channel Down and a Higher High on the short-term Bullish Megaphone and then start a 2-3 month decline (Bearish Leg).
The previous two Bearish Legs have been fairly symmetrical (-61.52% to -63.56%) so technically we are looking at a 9.00 minimum Lower Low (-61.52%). Our Target is however slightly higher at 10.10, in case each Lower Low is formed on a decreasing rate.
Once VIX peaks and gets rejected downwards again, we will have a legitimate sign that the stock market volatility will start to ease and a bottom will be formed.
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Yea if you watch my uvxy uvix and vix videos i mention before 1987, 1999-2002, 2007/2008, 2019/2020 major recent correction the VIX has hit 12-13 spiked and then hit 9-11 on a final drop before black swan rises like those mentioned above, I'm confident Biden's team will throw all student loan forgiveness, any other forgiveness programs, any loose money low rate policies to keep markets propped, it's too important to the scumbags in DC for the election, so expect suppression until Q4, earliest Q3, up to Q1 2025 Election time and then we let out and break 20 on the VIX and have some parabolic pain on the bullish fear index game like in 2019!
candlestickninja
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@candlestickninja, Thus I 100% agree with this analysis, when other's show exactly what I show but in different ways with different tools, this confluence means something!
Fibonaccivix
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More like a coiled spring spiking once it goes through the top trend