VIX SHORT TERM EXPECTATIONS (1H) for CBOE:VIX by weeno310

150 views

Just making an observation that VIX has come back to it's bottom of around 24.3.. At this point we can expect a bounce, which would indicate there is volatility coming in the market.. Can be an indication of a Sell coming in the S&P500 .. If not, I would expect it to continue it's run down to it's next bottom of around 12.9 and see if will bounce from there..

Comments

12.90 please no! Anyway I have a downside projection down at 22.60, if it gets there would be surprising, coming over 30 will negate that projection. Seems like the finishing touches to a bottom transpired this morning, the seasonal weakness ended 7/17 but continued for a few days more. The NDX, SPX has broken nearby support but the DJIA still questionable unless it breaks Monday's low. That would be a positive development in VIX as long as these indices do not go past initially .618 and .786 levels in wave 2. I look forward to VIX coming back over 30 to invalidate downside projection but so far VIX,VXN,VVIX,VXY have all tested recent lows and now are trading positive near days high. Furthermore, there seems to be a breakdown in support of JNK and ITB and possible rally failure or truncation that may be an early sign of something big to downside in the economy. The put/call ratio has traded for weeks at historic lows and recently at 20 year lows, a precursor of a topping process though lagging along with extreme bullish sentiment.

Reply

I think the market will go short in the next few days until middle of august and then we start the last rallye before we go to start on a big correction

Reply

MartinSchnellmann

@MartinSchnellmann, hmm, maybe sooner. Schnell!

Reply