Probability of Profit: 29% Max Profit: 73/contract Max Loss: 127/contract Break Even: 11.27
Notes: VIX at sub-10 is about the only time I'll do a bullish assumption trade in VIX. Here, I'll look to money/take/run on any pop, although 50% max would be nice ... .
Trade active
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Rolling to Dec 20th 10/13 short put vert for a .62 credit. Scratch at 1.35.
Trade active
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Adding a Dec 20th 16/19 short call vert for a .25 credit buying power free (same width spread/same expiry). Scratch at 1.60.
Trade closed manually
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Been somewhat lax on updating my trades ... . Exited this last week for 1.80 as a .20/contract loser. A reminder as to why I hate long volatility; it can remain lower for longer than you'd like ... .
Thanks for sharing! Do the futures relate in to this kind of decision? I see Nov15 at 13.22, also saw I was wrong on TW, futures there but not usable yet (so use cboe futures quotes. It is handy that VIX is right there on top. Thurs-Fri out of town this week so not doing anything new.
NaughtyPines
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@Tom1trader, I didn't set it up using the futures price, but -- in essence -- I'll need that futures contract price to either go up intratrade or for it to converge on a price above my break even before expiry. We'll see how it plays out ... .