TheBanker

Volatility Outlook (VIX) June 2016

Long
TVC:VIX   Volatility S&P 500 Index
During periods of risk the VIX tends to get inverted- typically during times of stress this has stay inverted for quite some time, 6 weeks after last years shock valuation from China.

When this curve goes back to a normal upwards sloping curve, this is usually a very good sign.

The US equity markets has been pricing in the UK as an 'island', the risk of Brexit is enormous.

The problem is and this is where the options market gets it right, it's going to be like watching a really boring movie in slow motion.

There are not a lot of near time trading events from an options point of view, or a risk point of view.

Borris has taken himself out, how do you really trade that? there are not a lot of really tradable events in the near-term.

The end of quarter beta chase were not as important had be not had the Brexit and market been up 9% YTD

The volatility floor, globally will rise to a higher level - it really comes down to the political dynamics in the euro-zone, if these can be contained.