This chart highlights the on VIX . It began when the market slumped in late October, with another spike on December 21. There were additional lower highs on January 4 and 12.
VIX has also dropped in six of the last seven sessions and has remained consistently under its 50-day ( ).
Next is an important thing that never happened: The bears never followed up the S&P 500’s selloff on January 4. Instead, buyers stepped in below 3700 and quickly sent the index above 3800. The result? A bearish outside day morphed into a bullish outside week.
Last is the upcoming calendar of events. season officially starts on Friday, likely followed by significant stimulus from Congress. On top of that, we could also see things returning to normal as vaccinations continue to spread.
All those trends suggest that more positive catalysts may be coming. VIX could be under pressure as the news trickles in.
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Fundamentally, I think the only thing holding up the stock market is an expectation of stimulus and I don't think it will take much for the market to tank. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one waiting for a 2.5% 30yr T-bond to dump all my stocks and get in at that level before the Fed is forced to drop rates to zero or lower.
Technically, nothing could be clearer than seeing this falling wedge, typically a break higher is the most probable action. I think this will play out within a month.
optimism is fading.
Investors and professionals alike all around are asking why are prices this high. Fear is creeping into the market and because the extreme use of leverage and speculation it will only require one small bear poke to make this thing tumble into chaos. I believe smart money pulls out in the next two weeks causing a roaring fall to levels you wouldn't even consider possible.
Biden and congress are forced to sign an even larger stimulus in march due to these circumstances which is exactly what this market wants.
"Last is the upcoming calendar of events. Earnings season officially starts on Friday, likely followed by significant stimulus from Congress. On top of that, we could also see things returning to normal as vaccinations continue to spread."