Idea for VIX:
- Today the SPX dropped over 1%, yet VIX did not budge, VX futures and SKEW dropped off into the close instead.
- SKEW which had been elevated previously has dropped during the last 2 VIX spikes, yet VIX is not stopping its advance, nor are indices stopping their decline.
- At the very last second of the close, Biden signed a bill which would prevent the US government shutdown until Dec 3. This could not have been known, unless one had inside knowledge. However, this does not lift the debt ceiling. It changes nothing.
- GEX has reached its lowest level ever, signaling low gamma exposure (hedges in place) and that hedging that begins now will greatly affect the underlying price of the market.
- VIX futures term structure is in deep contango. Only when it reaches backwardation would it signal a potential top for VIX.
- JPM has rebalanced a large position today, but we don't know what the delta of their new position is.
Insiders, who have erroneously conflated their knowledge of policy as invincibility, have taken off their hedges, believing that they have beaten the game and the Fed and Congress to once again lift the markets.
Insiders, who have grown complacent, have bought the dip, and are exposed. Another move down will cause them to become forced sellers.
Insiders, who only know corruption, will learn that the gamma squeeze also works to the downside.
Tomorrow it will be known that Volatility, not the Fed, is King.
GLHF
- DPT
- Today the SPX dropped over 1%, yet VIX did not budge, VX futures and SKEW dropped off into the close instead.
- SKEW which had been elevated previously has dropped during the last 2 VIX spikes, yet VIX is not stopping its advance, nor are indices stopping their decline.
- At the very last second of the close, Biden signed a bill which would prevent the US government shutdown until Dec 3. This could not have been known, unless one had inside knowledge. However, this does not lift the debt ceiling. It changes nothing.
- GEX has reached its lowest level ever, signaling low gamma exposure (hedges in place) and that hedging that begins now will greatly affect the underlying price of the market.
- VIX futures term structure is in deep contango. Only when it reaches backwardation would it signal a potential top for VIX.
- JPM has rebalanced a large position today, but we don't know what the delta of their new position is.
Insiders, who have erroneously conflated their knowledge of policy as invincibility, have taken off their hedges, believing that they have beaten the game and the Fed and Congress to once again lift the markets.
Insiders, who have grown complacent, have bought the dip, and are exposed. Another move down will cause them to become forced sellers.
Insiders, who only know corruption, will learn that the gamma squeeze also works to the downside.
Tomorrow it will be known that Volatility, not the Fed, is King.
GLHF
- DPT
Comment:
I can admit I was wrong about the day, but outlook has not changed. It was bold indeed.
