The market's recent rally (indices are up 25% since November!) feels frustrating. It doesn't seem to reflect the economic realities we're facing.
Inflation is cooling, but it's still above targets. The labor market is strong, which might seem good, but it could be unsustainable with high interest rates. We're seeing layoffs, which contradicts the market's optimism. Maybe I'm missing something, but the disconnect between the market and the economy is concerning.
VIX has been rangebound since November 2023 and recently generated a positive MACD signal.
Looking ahead, the FOMC statement and Fed rate decision are later today. Historically, these events haven't triggered major market swings. A significant correction might require unexpected data, particularly a surprising labor market report.