Whelp, I was wrong. VIX did reach over 30 while most of us were sleeping. It was a temporary shock from Europe that did it. The VIX got stopped by my wedge resistance (blue line). For now, that white line seems to be the pivot point... that's why I kept it.
The VIX is doing something a bit weird. I can clearly see a ramp up (for now). If this was a normal trading week, I would say that the VIX is now testing the supports below again and may form another higher low. Since it's so close to Christmas, it's likely that the big boys are on vacation by now. The lower volume may likely limit the selling (and buying) too. Smaller moves on ES tends to lower the VIX. The next 2-3 trading days might show me which support that the VIX is choosing.
The NYAD broke a short-term support recently, so there should be some sort of volatility soon. That said, it didn't break any major supports below too. So market breadth is in an overall uptrend. Meaning, permabears will not get their big crash. A pullback, yes, but nothing like March 2020 unless the dollar suddenly surges over 100. So that's like lottery chances. Think of it this way. Why put your money on a scenario that is less likely to happen?
The holiday weeks are also messing with my timetable. Seasonally (usually), end of December to January has been a more volatile time.
Maybe the fate of the market depends on the FANGS. If a few trillion of market cap goes into a 10 to 20% downward correction, that should take a few small fish down with it too...