Here is a guaranteed play for you guys: CBOE:VIX gap fill to the downside, suggesting a rally in the S&P 500 / Nasdaq 100 . . . I don't know how long the rally will last, but I would bet my life on the fact that this gap fills.
Stock gaps will generally fill 80% of the time, and then we will see prices reverse 80% of the time after the gap is filled.
It is not a matter of IF the gap will fill, only WHEN it will fill — the CBOE Volatility Index is an oscillating index, meaning that it does not trend like a regular stock — gaps on this ticker have a 100% chance of filling.
Go back & see for yourself if you don't believe me . . .
This lines up with the oversold conditions across the indices, but does not mean that I am a market bull - there are simply too many bearish factors weighing on the market & I still think that we will see the CBOE:VIX hit 42ish sooner than later.
Remember that the ball bounces down the stairs & usually does not fall straight down from out the window.
I am new to trying to trade /VX future. In my mind, the VX future contract could be a 100% winner. If you buy at a reasonable price (take today's price for example at 23). If you hold long enough, the VIX is GAURANTEED to go up higher that that. . . .eventually. All you have to do is make sure that you have sufficient margin to cover should the VIX fall to post-covid low of ~16. Am I off base thinking this? What are the risks?
EnergyCorridor
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@EnergyCorridor, Its the rolls. . . . I didn't think that VX rolls every month.